Behind the jokes on national television aboutback waxing, Gov. Charlie Cristis in a fight for his political life.
A poll released Tuesdayshows former House Speaker Marco Rubio trouncing Crist for the Republican Senate nomination, 60-28.
The landslide margin reported by Public Policy Polling (PPP) of North Carolina is being read as another sign of deterioration -- if not impending implosion -- by a campaign that had held a similarly commanding lead just three months ago.
The PPP polling was done March 5-8, well after the dust-up over Rubio's questionable GOP credit card expenditures.
Still, on the eve of Tuesday's poll release, Crist was on Greta Van Susteren's Fox News show, making snarky suggestions about Rubio getting a back wax along with his $135 haircut.
Wasit an attempt at humor or an act of desperation?
Either way, Florida Republicans are jumping off the Crist bandwagon in ever-increasing numbers. The once popular governor hasn't won a county straw poll in months, and the PPP numbers show Rubio up a whopping 71-17 among self-described "conservatives."
If there was one silver lining for Crist, it comes from GOP moderates. He holds a seven-point lead in this group, but they account for less than one-third of likely primary voters.
So where does Crist go for votes? Try independents.
According to an earlier survey by Research 2000 for the Daily Kos blog, Crist enjoys a 58 percent favorable rating among voters registered as independents or unaffiliated. He took 33 percent of that vote to 32 percent for U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, the leading Democratic contender, and 27 percent for Rubio.
Crist has repeatedly denied entertaining an independent bid -- and he did so again on Tuesday morning before the PPP poll was released.
In a radio interview with the Washington Times, Crist said, "What I'm doing is running as a Republican. I'm proud of my party, proud to be from the party of Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt."
Then again, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter pooh-poohed the independent strategy before ultimately leaving their party.
If Crist changes his mind and goes independent, he'll have to declare his intentions soon. The filing period ends April 30.
In a statement released with the poll, PPP stated, "Our general election Senate numbers, which well release (Wednesday), find that Crist is a good deal more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. His path to any future electoral victory may come as an independent or perhaps even as a Democrat."
Responding to Tuesday's poll, Crist campaign spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg called the survey "clearly agenda driven."
"The firm conducting the poll is a well-known Democrat firm who uses the unreliable method of push-button polling. It is a Democrat poll designed to help Speaker Rubio, as they understand how easy it would be to defeat a lobbyist-politician in November.
"Looking at the questionnaire, it is obvious the types of questions asked and the order in which they were asked pre-determined the outcome. The questions cited were asked after intentionally questioning the governor's party loyalty as well as ideology, the same was not done for Rubio."
Andrea Saul, communications director for the Crist campaign, added:
"Polls like this reflect the mood of the electorate, and the electorate is in a bad mood. Ultimately, elections are about choices: This election will come down to the choice between an honest public servant with a strong conservative record in Charlie Crist and a Miami lobbyist-politician Marco Rubio, who has traded on his connections for everything from $135 haircuts to fat lobbying deals.
"Charlie Crist will win this race and win it decisively."
If Crist stands and fights for the Republican nomination, political analysts expect him to come out with guns blazing. And, he has the financial arsenal to do it.
Campaign reports show Crist with more than $7.5 million in the bank at the end of 2009 vs. Rubio's $2.1 million.
In terms of money available to spend on the primary, however, the Rubio camp calculates that Crist's edge dwindles to $4.7 million vs. $1.95 million.
Crist lost a key ally this winter when Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer was ousted over financial shenanigans. Greer's successor, state Sen. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, has not taken sides.
Katie Betta, communications director for the RPOF, said, "We're focused on November. Whoever wins the primary will be an outstanding candidate. Either (Crist or Rubio) would be outstanding senators."
Though Crist's campaign Web site boasts 9,126 Facebook "fans," he doesn't figure to get robust support from other GOP leaders after they digest the latest poll numbers. PPP reported that surveyed Republicans generally just want Crist to go away -- 56 percent say they'd like him out of office altogether.
"The poll shows the sentiment of America these days," said Everett Wilkinson, state coordinator for the South Florida Tea Party. "Crist's and (Barack) Obama's policies just aren't popular, and the Rubio campaign has done a masterful job of portraying those two together."
Though the Tea Party is not endorsing in the GOP primary, Wilkinson praised Rubio for successfully positioning himself against the federal stimulus program, Obamacare and other tax-and-spend initiatives.
That strategy, Wilkinson suggested, gave Rubio enough popular political capital to weather the recent attacks on the speaker's use of party credit cards.
Others in the GOP aren't counting Crist out.
"Polls are very temperamental and not as accurate as you'd like them to be," said Jacob Engels, chairman of the Florida Federation of Teenage Republicans.
"Remember that polls had Doug Hoffman up by 10 to 15 points in the New York's 23rd congressional district just before the election, and he lost," Engels noted. Hoffman had all but forced the Republican Party's anointed candidate out of the race before surrendering the long-held GOP district to a Democrat.
"Voters still have a lot to learn about Rubio," Engels added.
But, with the Aug. 24 primary looming, time and momentum may, meanwhile, be slipping away from Crist.
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 224-2386.
