With a year to go until the primaries and caucuses beginning to determine the Republican candidate who will take on President Barack Obama in 2012, a poll released Monday found no clear front-runner in the contest.
The Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters found that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, topped the poll with 24 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin placed second with 19 percent, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who also ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, took third with 17 percent. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich came in fourth with 11 percent.
Other candidates placed in single digits, including former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty with 6 percent, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 4 percent, and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels with 3 percent. The poll found 6 percent favored other candidates and 10 percent of those surveyed were undecided.
Other candidates considering running include Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, U.S. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former New York Gov. George Pataki, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, U.S. Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, businessman Herman Cain, and political activist Fred Karger.
Noting that early polls did not showeither Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton or John McCain ahead of the rest of the Republican field, Scott Rasmussen stressed that the poll his organization released shows the race is wide open.
People shouldnt assume that the partys eventual nominee will come from among the early front-runners, said Rasmussen. Lots of candidates, like lots of baseball teams, look good on paper, but you dont win the nomination on paper. You win by going to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and convincing small groups of people in living rooms to follow you.
Rasmussens cautionary words aside, history shows Republican primary voters gravitate toward a familiar face when deciding who their presidential candidate will be. McCain won the Republican nomination in 2008 after running for it in 2000. While Bob Dole won the nod in 1996, he ran for it before in 1980 and 1988, and had been Gerald Fords running mate in 1976. While George W. Bush won the nomination on his first try, he was the son and namesake of George H.W. Bush -- who won the nomination in 1988 after first trying in 1980. Even Ronald Reagan won the presidential nomination on his third try back in 1980.
The poll of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters was taken on Jan. 18 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
