New Hampshire voters went to the polls on Tuesday to vote in the first presidential primary. The stakes were high on both sides as candidates maneuvered for position.
On the Democratic side, in the days before the primary, Bernie Sanders surged in the polls, passing Hillary Clinton by large margins. Despite a loss to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucus last week, Donald Trump dominated most polls in the Republican race with a host of candidates battling for second place. Sanders and Trump won big on Tuesday while John Kasich, who was a non-factor in Iowa, placed second in the GOP field.
While the New Hampshire primary has been shaping presidential races for decades, the state’s importance might be overstated in recent cycles. The three most recent presidents--Bill Clinton in 1992, George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008--all claimed the White House despite losing in the Granite State. Candidates like Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992, Pat Buchanan in 1996, John McCain in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2008 won New Hampshire but didn’t go on to win their party’s nomination. There’s a reason the only president from New Hampshire--Franklin Pierce, the “Young Hickory of the Granite Hills”--is barely remembered and the state’s best known politician--the “Godlike Daniel” Webster--spent more time representing Massachusetts than its neighbor to the north.
Still, New Hampshire should be a swing state in November with an important Senate race to boot as Republican Kelly Ayotte is expected to be a top target for Democrats as they try to take control of the chamber. Even as some of the losers will spin that independent voters can often sway partisan primaries in New Hampshire, the state is expected to be in play in the general election.
Here’s a look at some of the winners and losers of the New Hampshire primary.
Winners
Mike Bloomberg. The former New York mayor has to be smiling after Tuesday night. In recent days, Bloomberg threw his name out once again as a possible independent candidate, relying on his own fortune and making a play for the political center. With Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump scoring big wins in New Hampshire, Bloomberg will now get a lot more attention. He won’t have much time to launch a bid but, if he gets in the race, he will be a factor in the general election like Ross Perot in 1992, not an afterthought who faded in the final weeks of the campaign like John Anderson in 1980. Whether Bloomberg actually lines up to run might depend on how Hillary Clinton does later this month. In the meantime, with Democrats going left with Sanders and Republicans going right with Trump and Ted Cruz, Bloomberg will have his moment in the sun as he ponders his plans.
Jeb Bush. While he did not exactly thrive, the former Florida governor survived New Hampshire after proving to be a non-factor in Iowa. Bush ended up battling Ted Cruz for third behind Donald Trump and John Kasich though the Texan had the edge. Had Bush failed to crack a double digit percentage in New Hampshire, he would have been finished. Best of all for Bush, he leapfrogged Marco Rubio in the Granite State. Bush still has a healthy warchest and now comes South Carolina. Ever since Lee Atwater made it the firewall for George H.W. Bush in 1988, the state has been partial for the Bush family. South Carolina propelled George W. Bush over John McCain in 2000 and the former Florida governor is already planning to send his brother to campaign there. Look for Bush to play up his endorsements from leading military figures as he looks to revive his campaign. Not a great night for Bush in New Hampshire but he survived and Rubio stumbled. The former Florida governor will take it, especially after his abysmal 2015.
Ted Cruz. New Hampshire is not exactly natural territory for the senator from Texas. After winning Iowa, Cruz never quite focused on the Granite State, even holding a rally in South Carolina. Despite that, Cruz battled for Jeb Bush for the bronze in New Hampshire and placed ahead of Marco Rubio, no small thing as the two senators continue to battle for position. Cruz now heads to far friendlier territory like South Carolina and the SEC states that will hold primaries in March. Iowa proved Cruz is a contender for the Republican nomination and his showing in New Hampshire did not change that.
John Kasich. The Ohio governor peaked at the right moment. Kasich put all his chips on New Hampshire and it paid off on Tuesday as he took second, ahead of his rivals in the establishment lane. Putting in a strong grassroots effort and enjoying a solid performance in Saturday night’s debate, Kasich was one of the big winners on Tuesday night. But now Kasich has to play catchup in states like South Carolina and he needs to step up his fundraising efforts. With his showing in New Hampshire, thanks in part help from John Sununu, Kasich can make the case to the GOP establishment that he offers them the best shot of slowing down Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. The question will be how Kasich will play down the road as he garners more attention--and attacks--from his rivals.
Bernie Sanders. The moment the polls closed, the networks projected Sanders as the winner. Sure, he’s from next door in Vermont and nearby Democrats like Mike Dukakis, Paul Tsongas and John Kerry have done well in New Hampshire. Regardless, Sanders scored a big win over Hillary Clinton, who beat Barack Obama here in 2008, on Tuesday. New Hampshire Democrats certainly like underdogs--Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Hart, Tsongas--but Sanders ran a strong campaign against Clinton. Clearly the Clinton team, just like it did in 2008, underestimated their main primary opponent and overestimated their candidate’s appeal. Two big caveats. Sanders did well with independents who came out and voted in the primary. But independents won’t be as much of a factor in plenty of other states. The race now turns to states like Nevada and South Carolina where minority voters play a far more important role than they do in Iowa and New Hampshire. That’s not exactly a natural fit for Sanders and he has to find a way to appeal to these voters, something he never had to do in Vermont. Regardless, this was a big night for him. Now Sanders just has to make sure it’s not the best night of his campaign.
Donald Trump. After Iowa, Trump needed a win and he got it on Tuesday with the networks calling it for him right after the polls closed. Trump led by a solid margin in most of the polls and, unlike Iowa where he was also ahead before the caucus, he came through in New Hampshire. More than a third of the Republican primary voters came from outside the GOP and that helped Trump as he won big, pulling twice the votes of his nearest rival. As the race turns to South Carolina, Trump has a lot at stake. Insurgent conservative Pat Buchanan beat Bob Dole in New Hampshire back in 1996 but South Carolina ended his momentum. Trump has to make sure history doesn’t repeat himself. Regardless of what happens in the Palmetto State, Trump had a good day on Tuesday and proved all the nay-sayers wrong. He’s no longer a political “apprentice.” With his opposition in the primary still divided, Trump is a contender and a far stronger candidate than the chattering class would have thought only six months ago.
Losers
Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor had a great Saturday night, scoring points off Marco Rubio in the debate. But Christie hurt Rubio far more than he helped himself. Once a contender in New Hampshire, Christie’s single digit showing on Tuesday after a pour outing in Iowa bodes poor for his presidential prospects. Unlike Iowa, Christie was a natural fit in the Granite State and he boasted about all the time and effort he poured into it. They didn’t pay off. Christie’s path to the nomination was something of an unlikely one. Now, after New Hampshire, it looks near impossible.
Hillary Clinton. Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination despite losing New Hampshire and the former secretary of State remains the favorite for her party’s nod. But this is going to be a bad next week and a half for Clinton as the buzz continues that she is not living up to expectations and whispers will grow that the Democrats need someone else--Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren--if they want to keep the White House. The race heads to friendlier territories for Clinton in Nevada and South Carolina and she’s still the favorite in the race. But there are going to be some rough days ahead for Clinton and she needs to ensure Bernie Sanders’ window closes before Democrats start panicking. Not a good night for the Democrat who won the state eight years before. To her credit, she gave an upbeat concession speech though it was not as memorable her husband’s “comeback kid” speech from 1992 and Obama’s “yes we can” speech after they lost New Hampshire. Clinton made an appeal to minorities in her concession speech as she looks to nail down Nevada and South Carolina.
Carly Fiorina. The former Hewlett Packard CEO had some strong debate performances but that didn’t convert to actual votes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Unlike Ben Carson who also underwhelmed but seemed more focused on South Carolina anyways, Fiorina was left out of Saturday night’s debate and is now a non-factor in the race. There’s buzz that she could end up on the GOP ticket in the vice presidential spot and there is something of a precedent for that. Joe Biden did well in the Democratic debates eight years ago but he didn’t round up many votes. Barack Obama put him on the ticket anyway. Fiorina might be in a similar position in the months to come but, for now, she needs to pull the plug on her campaign.
Marco Rubio. Not since George H.W. Bush‘s “big mo” in Iowa fell flat in New Hampshire back in 1980 did a presidential hopeful have as big a melt down between the first two states like Rubio did. Exit polls showed almost half of New Hampshire Republican primary voters made up their minds in the last days of the campaign making Rubio’s poor performance in Saturday night’s debate even more of a factor. Rubio was well poised to be the favorite in the establishment lane after his surprisingly strong third place showing in Iowa. But his bad debate performance and weak fifth place showing in New Hampshire have hurt Rubio considerably. The senator from Florida now has to turn things around in South Carolina and, with John Kasich and Jeb Bush doing better than Rubio in New Hampshire, that will be no easy task. Increasingly, South Carolina looks like it will either make or break Rubio. On Tuesday night, as results came in, Rubio sent out an email to supporters highlighting his religious faith. Look for Rubio to continue that trend as he heads to South Carolina. But his strategy--third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina--is clearly in tatters.
Women for Hillary. The exit polls found Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton with female voters. That’s a major blow for Clinton and her supporters like NARAL and feminists like Gloria Steinem and old Clinton retainers like Madeline Albright who made idiotic comments as they tried to rally votes for the former secretary of State. Steinem apologized for saying young women were backing Sanders since a lot of young men were while Albright drew fire for saying “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!” Reports emerged that Clinton supporters were demanding the campaign rein in Steinem and Albright who clearly did not help their candidate in the New Hampshire primary. Now Clinton will have to prevent Sanders from continuing to make inroads with a voting block that she assumed was behind her from the start.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
