In New Hampshire, a new poll shows that U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska are showing momentum. But U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas -- doing well in Iowa -- is struggling in the Granite State.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney of neighboring Massachusetts, as expected, is still leading the Republican pack in the first primary state.
The new poll from American Research Group has Romney leading the field in New Hampshire with 29 percent. Bachmann places second with 12 percent while former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who appears unlikely to run but has left the door open to another presidential campaign, takes third with 9 percent. Palin, who has also not officially jumped in the race, is in fourth with 8 percent. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia takes fifth with 7 percent.
The rest of the field lags behind, taking 5 percent or less. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota is in sixth place with 5 percent while Paul and businessman Herman Cain tie for seventh with 4 percent. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who is contemplating running, is tied with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania for ninth with 2 percent. Other candidates -- former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana -- garnered less than 1 percent in the poll.
American Research Group, which is based in New Hampshire, released a poll back in April offering a snapshot of the Republican contest in the Granite State at that point in time. Romney led the pack while businessman Donald Trump came in second with 17 percent and Gingrich, Paul, Giuliani and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee all locked in third with 8 percent.
Trump and Huckabee announced since the April poll that they will not run in 2012 -- but, just as with a poll released earlier in the week by American Research Group looking at Iowa, Romney was not able to take advantage of their absence. While Romney led both polls, he slipped slightly in the July poll, dropping from 32 percent in April to his current 29 percent. Despite his son, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, who took 2 percent in the April poll, being taken out of the mix, Paul also took a step back since April, moving from 8 percent to 4 percent though the Iowa polls show the Texas congressman gaining momentum in the Hawkeye State.
Just like their Iowa polls, the American Research Group surveys of New Hampshire showed both Bachmann and Palin on the rise. Palin took 2 percent in the April poll and she took 8 percent in the July one. Bachmann, who announced her bid during a debate in New Hampshire back in June, did even better, moving from 1 percent in April to 12 percent in July.
There was also one other dramatic development between the April and July polls. The April poll showed that 8 percent of those surveyed were undecided. That number rose in July to 18 percent.
The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire was taken between July 9-13 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
