Already leading in the money chase, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the current favorite for the Republican presidential nomination to take on President Barack Obama in 2012, retains a healthy lead in a poll that looks at New Hampshire, site of the first presidential primary contest.
With more than seven months to go until the primary, which will be held on Feb. 14, Romney continues to lead in the Granite State Poll, which is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The former governor of neighboring Massachusetts has led the pack of Republican candidates in each and every Granite State Poll since February 2009, never dropping below 30 percent or exceeding 50 percent.
The newest poll, which was released on Tuesday, found Romney taking 35 percent, beating his nearest rival by more than 20 percent. Following a very impressive June, in which she announced her candidacy and had a strong showing in a debate with her fellow candidates in New Hampshire, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann placed second with 12 percent. Bachmann had been a nonfactor in the polls taken over the spring, garnering 4 percent in the April, May and June versions of the Granite State polls.
Two Republicans who, like Romney, ran for their partys presidential nomination in 2008, came in third place -- former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. While Paul has official declared his candidacy, Giuliani remains on the sidelines, though he has left the door open to running again in 2012.
Making his debut in the Granite State Poll, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who has yet to enter the race but appears increasingly likely to do so, placed fifth with 4 percent. Another candidate who has yet to officially declare her bid, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, tied with former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota for sixth with 3 percent.
Bachmanns rise appears to have come at the expense of a fellow favorite of the tea party movement in Palin. While Palin usually pulled in double digits during 2010, as she continues to remain on the sidelines her support has evaporated, dropping from 11 percent in New Hampshire in October to her current 3 percent.
Two candidates -- former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah and conservative business leader Herman Cain -- tied for eighth with 2 percent. Plagued by a faltering campaign and high disapproval ratings, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia stood with 1 percent of the vote. Three other candidates -- former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico and former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana -- garnered less than 1 percent.
Romney had the highest favorability percentage -- 68 percent -- of any of the Republican hopefuls, while 24 percent of likely primary voters viewed him in an unfavorable light. Two other Republican candidates broke 50 percent favorability in the poll. While 56 percent of those surveyed had favorable views of Giuliani, 33 percent saw him as unfavorable. Bachmann garnered 52 percent favorability while 23 percent saw her unfavorably.
Despite their low poll numbers, most of the likely primary voters who were polled had opinions of Pawlenty and Santorum. Pawlenty was seen as favorable by 39 percent and unfavorable by 20 percent. Santorum did slightly worse -- 33 percent viewed the former senator in a favorable light while 21 percent saw him unfavorably.
While less than 50 percent of those surveyed were sure about the other candidates, two of them -- Perry and Cain -- had solid numbers. Almost a third of those surveyed -- 32 percent -- had a favorable impression of Cain while 13 percent saw him as unfavorable. Perry did even better -- 34 percent saw him as favorable and 15 percent viewed him as unfavorable.
Three of the candidates were upside down in the poll. Paul was seen as favorable by 40 percent but unfavorable by 45 percent. Palin did even worse -- 41 percent saw her as favorable and 52 percent as unfavorable. Gingrich did the worst, with 25 percent of likely Republican primary voters seeing him in a favorable light while 62 percent viewed him as unfavorable.
The poll found Obama in excellent shape to fend off a primary challenge, with 69 percent of Democrats in New Hampshire backing the president while only 11 percent would vote for another candidate in the primary.
With New Hampshire expected to be a close contest in the general election, Romney leads Obama by 4 points in the Granite State, down from his 8-point lead in February. Obama led Bachmann by 6 points and Pawlenty by 9 points in the poll.
The poll of 773 New Hampshire adults was taken from June 21-July 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. This included 357 likely Republican primary voters which had a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent and 263 likely Democratic primary voters which had a margin of error of +/- 6 percent.
With the second quarter of 2011 fundraising ending on June 30, the various Republican camps -- save Bachmanns team -- have released their figures for that period. Romney brought in more than $18 million in that period while nearest competitor Ron Paul brought in around $4.5 million. Pawlenty reeled in $4.2 million while Huntsman, who entered the race in late June, gathered $4.1 million, thanks in large part to chipping in some of his own money. Cain took in $2.5 million and Gingrich brought in $2 million.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
