Patrick Murphy might give Republicans fits if he runs for the Senate in 2016, but in so doing, he would also give the GOP an opportunity to pick up a congressional seat.
Republicans outnumber Democrats slightly in the district but Murphy has proven a very capable candidate. In 2012, Allen West helped Murphy considerably by not doing much grassroots campaigning and jetting off in the final weeks of the campaign to help Republicans in other states. Murphy claimed the political middle against West and proved a very hard-working candidate and scored a narrow win.
Murphy never slowed down once in office and proved attentive to the district even while he was in Washington. Republicans made a lot of noise about challenging Murphy in 2014, but the big names stayed out of the race, leaving Carl Domino, who was coming off two straight primary losses, to beat out a weak primary field.
With rumors now buzzing that Murphy will announce a Senate bid later this month, Republicans have a far better chance of picking up the seat. Republican candidates across the country did well last year but Murphy was in no jeopardy at all, blowing Domino out by 20 percent. As things stand, even in the unlikely event that 2016 is a far better year for Republicans than 2014 proved to be, Murphy would be tough to beat at his current position.
But Murphy running for the Senate opens this seat up. There is already a field of Republicans starting to line up for this seat including Pat Rooney, who could join his brother Tom in Congress, William Snyder, Gary Uber and Domino once again. Bob Crowder could also take a shot. Tod Mowery took a pass on running against Murphy in 2014 but he could run this time out. Notably, there's state Rep. Gayle Harrell who has long wanted the seat. She tried to claim it in 2008, losing to Tom Rooney only by a little more than 1,000 votes. Joe Negron doesnt seem interested in another congressional bid. The same holds true of Adam Hasner. Its a pretty impressive field for the Republicans though its tough to imagine any of them challenging Murphy if he opts to stay where he is.
The Democrats simply arent as impressive. Jeff Clemens might be one of the leading Democrats in the Legislature, but he is far to the left of Murphy and would have a hard time winning moderates. With his background in law enforcement, Dave Kerner could do better with moderates, much like Murphy has, but he is only 31, remains largely unknown and has never been tested in a general election fight. Melissa McKinlay also has a good deal of potential, but she is even more of a political rookie than Kerner.
In short, as of now, Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats do to replace Murphy if he runs for the Senate in 2016. The GOP had slim pickings to win a congressional seat from the Democrats in Florida next year but Murphy could be handing them a great opportunity.
Tallahassee-based political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
