The race for the Republican presidential nomination takes a lull until April 24 when five states in the Northeast -- Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island -- hold their primaries. Polls of two of those key states, unveiled on Thursday, show that Mitt Romney is ahead despite Rick Santorums roots in the area.
With 94 delegates to the Republican convention in Tampa, New York is the biggest prize on the table when the five states have their say in the Republican race -- and Empire State Republicans appear to be solidly behind Romney.
A poll from Quinnipiac University of likely Republican primary voters shows Romney taking 54 percent in New York while Rick Santorum places second with 21 percent. Newt Gingrich stands in third with 9 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 8 percent. While 8 percent are undecided, 39 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they could change their mind before they vote.
"Assuming the numbers hold until April 24, Governor Mitt Romney sweeps the statewide Republican vote -- good for 34 delegates to the party convention, said Maurice Carroll, the director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The question is whether Santorum can pick off one of the 29 districts, each good for two delegates."
But while Romney appears to have sewn up the New York primary, the general election is a different story. Ronald Reagan was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry New York, back in 1984. And according to the Quinnipiac poll, President Barack Obama should have no problem carrying the state in November.
When the poll was expanded to include all voters, Obamas performance in the White House wins the approval of 56 percent of those surveyed while 38 percent disapprove of it. Obama also holds solid leads over the leading Republican challengers. He beats Romney 56 percent to 33 percent and leads Santorum 59 percent to 30 percent.
"New York is still a super-blue state, Carroll said, pointing to Obamas lead among black voters. President Barack Obama trounces any of the GOP challengers in a general election match-up. That 94-1 percent lead among black voters gives the president a jumbo cushion."
The poll of 1,597 likely New York voters was taken March 28-April 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. This includes a sample of 372 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.
Another poll released on Thursday also had good news for Romney, as he has taken the lead in Santorums home state of Pennsylvania, according to Public Policy Polling, a firm with connections to many prominent Democrats.
Romney leads the poll of likely Pennsylvania Republican primary voters with 42 percent, followed by Santorum with 37 percent. Ron Paul takes third with 9 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich with 6 percent.
The momentum in Pennsylvania is moving completely against Rick Santorum, said Dean Debnam, president of PPP. Mitt Romney has a great chance to deliver a final crushing blow to his campaign on April 24. A home-state loss would be incredibly embarrassing for Santorum.
The poll of 403 likely voters was taken April 4 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
While he campaigned in the Keystone State this week, Santorum will be taking a break from the campaign trail over the Easter weekend -- leading to some speculation that he is reassessing his campaign.
For the moment, Paul is avoiding the five Northeastern states to focus elsewhere. With four events there on Thursday, the Gingrich campaign is focusing on Delaware.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
