With Michigan and Arizona holding primaries on Tuesday, polls unveiled on Wednesday find Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney is leading the pack of candidates in both states.
An NBC News/Marist poll released on Wednesday finds Romney with a small lead over Rick Santorum in the Michigan Republican presidential primary. While Santorum led in polls of the Great Lakes State last week, polls unveiled this week have found the race much closer and some have had Romney ahead.
Michigan is a crucial state for Romney who was born there and whose father, George Romney, served as governor in the 1960s. Romney carried the state in the 2008 Republican contest, besting John McCain by 9 percent in the primary.
Romney takes 37 percent in the poll of likely primary voters, followed by Santorum right on his heels with 35 percent. Ron Paul stands in third with 13 percent while Newt Gingrich lags in single digits with 8 percent. With less than a week to go, most primary voters are standing behind their candidate, though 12 percent say they are open to changing their mind.
Most Michigan Republicans -- 55 percent -- say they are content with the Republican field, though a sizeable minority -- 41 percent -- would like to see a candidate not in the running emerge with the GOP nomination.
Romney is seen as the candidate most likely to defeat Democrat incumbent President Barack Obama in November. A bare majority -- 51 percent -- think Romney has the best shot of winning against Obama, while 24 percent say Santorum, 8 percent Gingrich and 4 percent Paul.
Despite Romneys ties to Michigan, 88 percent of those surveyed said his Michigan ties do not influence their view of him. Ten percent say Romney's roots there make it more likely they will vote for him.
When the poll was expanded to include all voters, it shows that Obama has a solid lead over all of the various Republican candidates in Michigan. Obama takes 51 percent against Romney, who follows with 33 percent. The other candidates do even worse. Obama beats Paul 53 percent to 31 percent and routs Santorum 55 percent to 29 percent. Obama does best when matched against Gingrich, burying the former congressional leader 56 percent to 28 percent.
The poll of 3,149 registered Michigan voters was taken Feb. 19-20 and had a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percent. This includes a sample of 715 likely Michigan Republican primary voters, which had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.
Romney holds a larger lead in Arizona, taking 43 percent of the NBC News/Marist poll of likely primary voters, while Santorum stands in second with 27 percent. Gingrich places third with 16 percent, followed by Paul with 11 percent.
While Obamas camp has made Arizona a top target in the general election, the president falls short when matched against most of the Republican hopefuls in the Grand Canyon State. Romney tops the president 45 percent to 40 percent, while Santorum leads Obama 45 percent to 42 percent. Paul also beats Obama in Arizona, 43 percent to 41 percent. Obama does best when matched up against Gingrich, leading him 45 percent to 40 percent.
The poll of 2,487 registered Arizona voters was taken Feb. 19-20 and had a margin of error of +/- 2 percent. This includes a sample of 767 likely Arizona Republican primary voters, which had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
