A national poll unveiled Wednesday reveals that former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is leading the pack for the Republican presidential nomination -- but how large a lead and who his chief rival is depends on the candidates remaining on the sidelines.
The new Gallup poll shows Romney leading in all potential scenarios and he is enjoying a healthy lead when the survey just included announced candidates.
Romney took 27 percent followed by surging U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with 18 percent. Bachmann had taken 7 percent in Gallup polls in May and June. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas took third with 11 percent.
The rest of the field trailed in single digits. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia came in fourth with 7 percent followed by another favorite son of the Peach State -- businessman Herman Cain -- who took 5 percent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota took 4 percent followed by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum with 3 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman with 2 percent.
But the race changes considerably if three major Republican figures -- Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- enter the race.
When all three are included, Romneys lead is reduced to the margin of error. In that scenario, Romney tops the poll with 17 percent with Perry right on his heels with 15 percent. Palin comes in third with 12 percent. Giuliani and Bachmann tie for fourth with 11 percent.
The rest of the field lags behind. Paul moves down from fourth to sixth with 8 percent while Gingrich and Cain tie for seventh with 3 percent. Pawlenty, Huntsman and Santorum are all knotted together at the bottom with 2 percent.
With only Perry included, Romney takes 23 percent with the Texas governor in second with 18 percent. Bachmann takes third with 13 percent followed by Paul with 10 percent. Gingrich garners 6 percent, Cain takes 4 percent and Pawlenty stands with 3 percent. Huntsman and Santorum lag behind with 2 percent each.
With only Palin included, Romney still led with 23 percent followed by Bachmann with 16 percent. Palin came in third with 15 percent. Paul took 9 percent while Cain and Gingrich were tied with 5 percent. Palwenty garnered 4 percent followed by Santorum with 3 percent and Huntsman at the bottom with 2 percent.
When only Giuliani was added to the mix, Romney still took 23 percent followed by Bachmann with 17 percent and the former New York City mayor, who ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, with 14 percent. Paul once again garnered 6 percent followed by Gingrich with 6 percent and Cain at 5 percent. Pawlenty once again claimed 3 percent while Huntsman and Santorum were at the back of the pack with 2 percent apiece.
The poll of 1,088 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents across the nation was taken from July 20-24 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
