If Mitt Romney makes a third presidential bid, he will find Florida far different territory than his past two bids for the Republican nomination.
Romneys been floating trial balloons left and right in recent days and increasingly it looks like he will try once again for the White House. Paul Ryan, who made it clear he had no intention of running if Romney was considering it, said this week that he will stay in Congress instead of trying for the presidency. The media are full of reports of that Romney still wants to be president and he is in touch with old staff and past backers.
But things will be very different in Florida. Jeb Bush inhabits much the same space on the political stage as Romney does and he stole a march on the former Massachusetts governor and other possible Republican candidates by setting up his exploratory committee early. Bush has set high fundraising goals, including reports of gunning for $100 million in the first quarter of 2015 with $25 million of that coming from Florida. If Romney doesnt start soon, Bush could take up all the oxygen.
Running as the conservative in the field, Romney took 31 percent in Florida back in 2008 but John McCain won with 36 percent. Like Rudy Giuliani, who took a distant third with 15 percent, Romney griped about Charlie Crists role in backing McCain. Things were easier for Romney in 2012. He won and ended the momentum Newt Gingrich claimed after winning South Carolina.
Still, despite his past success, Romney wont be able to get the band back together in Florida. Plenty of former Romney supporters and donors will back either Bush or Marco Rubio come 2016.
Other former Romney backers will be sidelined for other reasons. Case in point: John Thrasher. Having chaired Romneys Florida efforts in 2008 and 2012, Thrasher was close to the former Massachusetts governor. When Thrasher kicked off a state Senate bid, Romney was there backing the longtime Florida politician. But Thrasher is now president of FSU and will stay out of the fray in the 2016 primaries.
Even if he is facing disadvantages in Florida this time out, Romney cant rule out the Sunshine State. Bush and Rubio may not run or could drop out of the race before Florida holds its primary. Romney cant also write off Florida which remains a must-have for whoever the Republicans nominate for president in 2016.
But if Bush stays out, it is a far different story. In the meantime, Romney will be keeping his eye on Florida if he runs again -- and will make another major play for the Sunshine State if Bush stays out.
Tallahassee based political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
