With just more than a week until South Carolina Republicans vote in their presidential primary, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts leads the pack of GOP hopefuls according to two polls released on Friday.
Set up by legendary Republican operative Lee Atwater as a firewall for George H.W. Bush in 1988, the South Carolina primary has proven decisive in recent years. In 1988, after losing the Iowa caucus to Bob Dole, Bush went on to win the New Hampshire primary and South Carolina to seal the nomination. In 1996, after losing New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan, Dole won South Carolina and went on to be the nominee. In 2000, George W. Bush, who won Iowa but lost New Hampshire to John McCain, won South Carolina and won the nomination. In 2008, after losing Iowa to Mike Huckabee, McCain triumphed in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
With Romney having won Iowa by the skin of his teeth and romping to victory in New Hampshire, the other hopefuls are looking to slow him down in South Carolina. A win for Romney would make his nomination almost inevitable and would probably force some of the other candidates out of the race.
A poll from American Research Group released on Friday found that Romney had a small lead over former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Romney leads in the Palmetto State with 29 percent while Gingrich takes second with 25 percent and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas places third with 20 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry places fourth with 9 percent while former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania takes fifth with 7 percent. Former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah takes sixth place with 1 percent of the vote.
Gingrich leads with evangelical voters and tea party supporters. Compared to an ARG poll of South Carolina taken last week, Santorum is dropping in the Palmetto State while Paul is on the rise there. In that poll, Santorum took 24 percent and Paul 9 percent.
The poll of 600 likely South Carolina primary voters was taken Jan. 11-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
A poll from Rasmussen Reports released on Friday also finds Romney ahead of Gingrich, though with a more comfortable margin.
Romney takes 28 percent of those surveyed while Gingrich places second with 21 percent. Santorum, who had been second in a Rasmussen poll last week, drops back to third, where he is tied with Paul with each of the candidates taking 16 percent. Perry takes 6 percent in the poll while Huntsman garners 5 percent.
The Rasmussen poll of 750 likely Republican primary voters was taken Jan. 12 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
