While Mitt Romney handily defeated John McCain in Michigan in 2008, two polls taken on Sunday show that this years Republican presidential primary Tuesday should be much closer.
Despite being born there and his fathers tenure as governor of the state, Romney tumbled in the polls in the Great Lakes State after he lost to Rick Santorum in contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri earlier in the month. Some polls even showed Santorum ahead of Romney by double digits.
Based on the new polls, Romney appears to have regained the lead, albeit a small one, over Santorum in Michigan.
In a We Asked America poll of likely Michigan primary voters, Romney leads with 37 percent with Santorum in second with 33 percent. Ron Paul takes third place with 18 percent, while Newt Gingrich follows with 13 percent. The poll of 984 likely Michigan Republican primary voters was taken on Feb. 26 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.12 percent.
Romney also leads a poll of likely Michigan primary voters taken on Sunday by Public Policy Polling, a firm with connections to prominent Democrats. Romney takes 39 percent in the PPP poll, with Santorum on his heels with 37 percent. Paul stands in third with 13 percent, while Gingrich lags in single digits with 9 percent.
The PPP poll shows that attacks against Santorum have taken their toll in Michigan. While a PPP poll taken earlier in the month showed 67 percent of likely primary voters held a favorable view of Santorum, the current poll finds that number has gone down to 54 percent. While only 23 percent of likely primary voters held an unfavorable view of Santorum in the earlier poll, that number has gone up to 39 percent. Romney is seen as favorable by 57 percent and as unfavorable by 37 percent -- showing little movement on either front since the earlier poll.
The other two candidates are slightly upside down with likely primary voters. Paul is seen as favorable by 45 percent but unfavorable by 46 percent. Gingrich does slightly worse with 46 percent viewing him as unfavorable while 44 percent see him as favorable.
With 16 percent of those surveyed already having voted, Romney starts off strong with 62 percent of early voters backing him -- however, Santorum leads Romney by 5 percent among the 84 percent who have not voted yet.
Momentum in Michigan is completely on Mitt Romneys side, said PPP President Dean Debnam. Hes amassed a large lead with absentee voters and it will take a huge turnout on Election Day from Santorum voters to overcome that.
The PPP poll of 421 likely Republican primary voters was taken on Feb. 26 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
