A poll of likely primary voters released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday morning finds that former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has caught up withRepublican presidential primary rival former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts in Florida.
"Florida is essentially a dead heat and a two-man race between Governor Mitt Romney and Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the last week of the campaign," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement on Wednesday.
Romney takes 36 percent, while the former congressional leader garners 34 percent -- but Gingrich leads with 40 percent to Romneys 34 percent among voters polled after his win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania takes third with 13 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 10 percent. Seven percent of those surveyed remain undecided. Thirty-eight percent of the total said they could change their mind before Tuesdays primary.
Romney had led a Quinnipiac survey of Florida released on Jan. 9 with 36 percent, followed by Gingrich with 24 percent.
"Gingrich's South Carolina victory clearly gives him a boost in Florida, Brown said. The question is whether there is more of that to come, or whether any bump from a previous victory will dissipate --as happened to Rick Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa and Romney in South Carolina after taking New Hampshire.
Romney and Gingrich both get solid marks from Florida Republicans. Seventy-one percent of those surveyed see Romney as favorable, while 19 percent see him as unfavorable. Sixty-one see Gingrich in a favorable light while 26 percent see him as unfavorable. Santorum is more unknown. Fifty-eight percent see him as favorable and only 13 percent view him as unfavorable. Paul, who is not focusing on Florida, is upside down in the Sunshine State, with 40 percent seeing him as unfavorable and 36 percent having a favorable view of him.
Women break for Romney 38 percent, while Gingrich gets the support of 31 percent. Men lean toward Gingrich, with 37 percent backing him and 33 percent going for Romney. Gingrich does very well with evangelical Christians and tea party Republicans. Forty-three percent of evangelicals go for Gingrich with 30 percent backing Romney. The same number -- 43 percent -- of tea party supporters break for Gingrich, while 28 percent support Romney.
The poll found Florida Republicans view Romney as more trustworthy and better on the economy than Gingrich, though they believe the former speaker is a stronger leader and has more experience and knowledge. Forty-nine percent think Romney would have a better chance against Democrat incumbent President Barack Obama in November, while 35 percent think Gingrich would do better.
"Newt Gingrich's edge is that he is the candidate with momentum and the one viewed as best on a host of issues and characteristics important to voters, Brown said. Romney, however, holds the potential trump card, that on the question most important to voters -- who can best fix the economy -- he is seen as the best candidate.
The poll of 601 likely Florida Republican primary voters was taken from Jan. 19-23 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
