Two contenders for the Republican presidential nomination with ties to the Sunshine State have announced they will skip the Iowa straw poll which will be held on Aug. 8.
With the Hawkeye State holding the presidential kickoff, traditionally the Iowa GOP holds a straw poll months before the actual caucus. This year, the event is being held in Boone but, traditionally, Ames has hosted the straw poll. Republican presidential contenders try to win or put up a strong showing to display they have a solid organization in Iowa that will help them in the caucus.
But the straw poll has often failed miserably as a predictor for the actual Iowa caucus. Back in 1995, then-U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, looked to embarrass then-U.S. Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kansas, who won the caucus back in 1988, in the straw poll. Dole and Gramm tied in the straw poll but the caucus would produce far different results. While Dole won the caucus, Gramm finished in single digits, ending his campaign as conservatives flocked to Pat Buchanans campaign.
In 2007, former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., blew out the field in the straw poll with former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., in second, then-U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, in third and then-U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., in fourth. But Huckabee beat Romney in the caucus while Brownback and Tancredo sunk so much into the straw poll that they ended their bids before the caucus actually took place.
Last time out, then-U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., won the straw poll over then-U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, while former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn., finished a distant third. Seeing the writing on the wall, Pawlenty ended his presidential bid. When the caucus took place a few months later, Bachmann simply wasnt a factor, taking sixth place with 5 percent while former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who placed fourth in the straw poll, edged Romney for the win.
If anything, the straw poll serves to winnow the field. Back in 1995, then-Gov. Pete Wilson, R-Calif., and then-U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., took 1 percent each in the straw poll. Both men ended their presidential bids before Iowa held its caucus. Four years later, former VP Dan Quayle and former Gov. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., pulled the plug on their campaigns after lousy showings in the straw poll. Besides Brownback and Tancredo, another casualty of the 2007 straw poll was former Gov. Tommy Thompson, R-Wis., who placed sixth. In 2011, Pawlenty ended his campaign after the straw poll while then-U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Mich., pulled out of the race a month after his last-place finish.
Despite winning the caucus in 2008, on Thursday, Huckabee, who moved to Florida after his presidential bid, said he would not compete in the straw poll, publishing a piece in the Des Moines Register explaining his decision.
"It's clear that pitting conservative candidates with limited resources against each other in a nonbinding and expensive summer straw poll battle, while allowing billionaire-backed establishment candidates to sit out, will only wound and weaken the conservative candidates who best represent conservative and hard-working Iowans," Huckabee said on Thursday.
Huckabees jab at billionaire-backed establishment candidates is a shot at former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., who announced in recent days that he wont compete in the straw poll. I dont do straw polls, Bush told the media.
Politico reported earlier this week that the straw poll was on life support as most candidates have refused to commit to it. So far, only Dr. Ben Carson and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, have confirmed their intent to compete in the Iowa straw poll.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
