Three amendments are on Tuesdays ballot but only one looks likely to pass.
Opponents of Amendment 1, which would send a fixed percentage from documentary-stamp tax from real estate sales to purchase land for conservation over the next 20 years, never quite materialized. The business community never exactly stepped up their efforts against it. Conservatives and Republicans seemed to have bigger fish to fry, namely the gubernatorial race, a handful of congressional elections and Amendment 2.
What little polling theres been shows Amendment 1 headed for a big win on Tuesday. Floridas Water and Land Legacy spent almost $5 million on ads pushing the amendment while there has been little in the way of formal opposition.
The recent polling has been all over the place on Amendment 2 on medical marijuana. United for Care, which supports Amendment 2, took a poll in which it cleared the 60 percent needed to pass at 62 percent and 35 percent opposed it. Thursdays Tampa Bay Times poll painted a very different picture with only 46 percent behind it and 43 percent against it.
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Both of those polls might be outliers but opposition has been rising in the polls. More than a few polls have shown 40 percent or more are against Amendment 2, enough to defeat it. Other polls show Amendment 2 getting opposition in the high 30s, meaning it needs to run the table with undecided voters to pass.
Theres still a chance Amendment 2 will pass but its odds are dropping by the day. Unlike Amendment 1, the opponents of it were far better organized than its supporters and the constant stream of attacks took its toll. Amendment 2 backers also waited too long to get on TV. Its still alive but it is on life support and needs things to break exactly its way to pass on Tuesday.
Amendment 3, on the other hand, never had a chance. Tom Lees brainchild grants the governor more flexibility to fill impending judicial vacancies, a strange proposal to be making in a close gubernatorial race. The measure has little support across the board. Even Republicans ardor for judicial reform seems to have cooled after Dean Cannons failed attempt to rein in judges back in 2011. What little polling is avaliable shows Amendment 3 in bad shape heading into next week.
Don Gaetz and Will Weatherford promised they would try to keep too many proposed amendments from showing up and, admittedly, there have been election years where amendments have cluttered up the ballot. Amendment 2 is the clear exception but the other two proposals have been almost lost in the ugly fight between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist. As of now, it looks like only Amendment 1 will pass.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
