The Florida House drove the stake through the heart of Medicaid expansion on Friday but Andy Gardiner and his crew in the Senate had to take their chances. Things will only get harder for them in the months to come.
Steve Crisafulli and Richard Corcoran held the line in the House. Even if Democrats pick up a few seats next year, Corcoran should preside over enough of a Republican majority to continue to ensure Medicaid expansion goes nowhere.
Nor will things be any easier in the Senate after next year. Matt Gaetz has been a vocal opponent of Medicaid expansion although his father Don supports it. The younger Gaetz is running for his father’s Senate seat in 2016 and, even with his recent Twitter trouble, the conservative state representative is a favorite to win the seat, even as George Gainer from the Bay County Commission considers getting in the race.
Like Don Gaetz, Charlie Dean faces term limits in 2016. So far, two members of the Florida House who oppose Medicaid expansion -- Dennis Baxley and Jimmie Smith -- are off and running for the Senate seat. Baxley has the edge at this early point in the race but, even if he stumbles, this conservative district should favor an opponent of Medicaid expansion.
Down in Southwest Florida, two more House Republicans opposed to Medicaid expansion -- Matt Hudson and Kathleen Passidomo -- are gunning for a Senate seat that will come open in 2016. They face Gary Price from the Naples City Council who has been critical of the House’s conduct during special session. It’s not a sure thing, by any means, but there is a good possibility that whoever wins this seat next year would oppose Medicaid expansion.
November 2016 is, of course, a long way off. But one of the things term limits inadvertently did to the Florida Legislature was to play havoc with the campaign calendars, making candidates get in races earlier and earlier. The early start dates also can offer glimpses of races early on, showing some strong candidates who are doing well in bringing in money and locking down support.
Reading the first tea leaves for 2016, supporters of Medicaid expansion could have determined that this was their best shot to get what they wanted since more opponents look headed to the Senate next year. Add to the equation some Senate Republicans, who are often more worried about conservative primary challengers than Democrats, and would have an easier time voting for Medicaid expansion now than in an election year.
The 2015 sessions represented Medicaid expansion’s best shot -- and it still came up short.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News
