A poll released Tuesday confirms that Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson will be vulnerable in 2012 when he seeks a third term.
The poll, backed by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon, found former Gov. Jeb Bush took 49 percent, beating Nelson who garnered 41 percent. While Bush is unlikely to run, Nelson led the rest of the possible Republican candidates but failed to muster 50 percent against any of them.
U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, whose father held the seat for two terms before Nelson won election in 2000, took 40 percent while Nelson stood at 45 percent. Nelson did better against other potential Republican candidates. The Democrat garnered 49 percent against former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux who took 35 percent. Nelson took 48 percent against Senate President Mike Haridopolos who had 25 percent. Nelson beat former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, 46 percent to 24 percent.
The poll of 625 registered voters was taken on Feb. 9-10 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Bill Nelson will clearly have a much more difficult path to victory next year than he had in 2006, said Brad Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon. He is in trouble if voters in 2012 are looking to throw out career politicians like they did in the past election.
The fact that Senator Nelson currently cant crack 50 percent against any GOP challenger in a head-to-head matchup, including several lesser-known lawmakers, is a clear sign of vulnerability, added Coker, who thought the economy and Floridians take on President Barack Obama will impact Nelsons bid for a third term.
Ron Sachs, the president and CEO of Ron Sachs Communications, who served as communications director to late Democratic icon Gov. Lawton Chiles, also thought that Nelson was going to face some challenges in 2012.
Regardless of his many years of public service, Senator Nelsons re-election in 2012 is anything but a sure thing in fact, any of his prospective Republican challengers is positioned to be competitive and possibly win, said Sachs. This contest will be a national story, as will the fact that, if he ran and the election were held today, former Governor Jeb Bush would beat Senator Nelson.
Other Republican candidates are considering running against Nelson, including U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, U.S. Rep. Dan Webster, U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, businessman and former gubernatorial candidate Mike McCalister, and businessman and former state Senate candidate Nick Loeb.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
