Marco Rubio is looking increasingly serious about running for president in 2016 and relying on his own financial operation to fund a potential campaign.
The national media reported at the end of last week that Rubio has been meeting with his fundraising team about running for president in 2016.
Rubios in a bit of an odd spot when it comes to the money chase. As long as Mitt Romney keeps leaving his name in the mix, some Republican money men will remain on the sidelines. Rubio has a natural base in his home state but Jeb Bush will get most of the Republican money from Florida. Having helped Rick Scott win a second term, Chris Christie can also bring in some money from Florida Republicans.
No doubt about it, Rubio will need to rake in the dough if he wants to run. Theres a growing line of thought that he has little to lose in making a presidential bid. Republicans generally choose previous presidential candidates for their nominees. Certainly, plenty of politicians from John McCain to Al Gore have used presidential bids to advance their status in Washington before making second White House attempts.
But Rubio also has a lot to lose if he runs a bad presidential campaign. He was the great Republican hope after Barack Obama beat Romney. But Rubios star flickered badly after his role with the Gang of Eight on immigration. His attempts to win back conservatives since then simply havent worked.
Even worse, he has faded in the polls. In early 2013, Rubio was at the head of the pack. Now he is often stuck in low-to-mid single digits. Even in Florida, polls show Bush far ahead of him and some even show Romney in second instead of Rubio.
Rubio cant afford a bad presidential campaign. It will doom him at the national level because there are plenty of other ambitious younger Republicans besides Rubio in the mix. While he is a favorite to keep his Senate seat in 2016 if he runs for a second term, Rubio is not a lock. A bad presidential campaign will only hurt his chances if he has to stay in the Senate.
Still, Rubio does have some strengths. He is an excellent speaker and has no problem expressing his vision and making the case for conservative values. Rubio can help Republicans appeal to the largest growing segment of voters. The GOP knows it needs to shift Hispanic votes away from the Democrats and Rubio can help their efforts there. Rubio also hails from the largest swing state in the Electoral College and its near impossible to imagine the Republicans claiming the White House in 2016 without Florida.
For Rubio to make a successful impact in 2016, he needs to raise money. And, to his credit, Rubio understands he needs to rely on his own operation instead of trying to count on a Florida GOP leaning behind Bush.
Any presidential bid from Rubio would be something of a high wire act. At least a strong fundraising operation would give him a safety net, ensuring he can be a factor if not a top contender in the primaries.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
