Marco Rubios prominent role in fighting for immigration reform may have not hurt him much in Florida but it does pose a major challenge for a potential bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
Rubio would be wise to take notes from Mitt Romneys presidential campaign. By most measures, Romney was well to the left of two of his conservative rivals for the Republican presidential nomination last time out, in Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. But Romney was able to hit both Gingrich and Perry on immigration from the right which helped reassure conservatives that the former Massachusetts governor was on their side -- which was no sure thing based on the record Romney built in Boston.
Two of Rubios fellow senators are already staking out ground to his right on the issue. Both Ted Cruz and Rand Paul voted against the Gang of Eights Senate bill and its helped advance their own prospective presidential bids. In a PPP poll of Iowa this week, Paul has replaced Rubio as the leader in the first caucus.
Conservative Republicans control the U.S. House and it looks like they will kill the Gang of Eights bill, leaving Rubio with little in the way of accomplishment and conservatives left angry with him. Sure, Rubio won points with Democrats and liberal editorial writers but that wont help if he seeks the Republican presidential nomination. Just ask John Anderson and Jon Huntsman whose candidacies won more applause from the left than from actual Republican primary voters.
Rubio is doing his best to try to keep conservatives happy on several other issues. He has joined with Cruz and Paul and other senators in looking to defund Obamacare. With conservative governors like Scott Walker and Rick Perry, who are also both possible rivals for the Republican presidential nomination come 2016, looking to stop abortion from happening after 20 weeks, Rubio is doing his best to keep up with them. In recent days, national pundits have been buzzing about Rubio leading the fight in the Senate to pass legislation ensuring similar legislation is passed at the federal level. It has no chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate but it does offer Rubio the chance to get back in conservatives good graces.
Rubio is not the only possible Republican presidential candidate who supported immigration reform. Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan also did. But Bush and Ryan built their national reputations on other issues and neither was front-and-center on immigration reform the way Rubio was.
Certainly theres time for Rubio to mend his relations with conservatives between now and the kickoff of the presidential contest. Rubio remains in excellent shape in Florida where, as polls show, he is still very popular with Republicans.
But Rubios 2016 presidential chances have taken a step back during the first half of 2013 and his role on immigration reform is the cause. With chances of the immigration reform bill passing the House growing slimmer with each passing day, look for Rubio to increasingly play up his opposition to Obamacare and abortion after 20 weeks as he looks to get back on track with conservatives for 2016.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
