U.S. Sen Marco Rubio, R-Fla., spoke to business leaders in Iowa Thursday, setting off speculation that he could be angling for a future presidential bid.
But a poll released this week shows that the junior senator from Florida has some major competition in the Hawkeye State. Rubio next week is headed to South Carolina, another early state in the presidential nomination process.
A poll released this week from Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to prominent Democrats, shows that Rubio and two other Republicans with ties to the Sunshine State would start off the 2016 presidential contest in solid shape in Iowa, home of the first caucus. The poll finds that Iowa is solidly behind Hillary Clinton if she makes a second bid for the Democratic nomination, while two previous winners in the Hawkeye State -- Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum -- start out ahead on the Republican side.
Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who moved to the Panhandle after running for the Republican nomination in 2008, ties with Santorum with 16 percent to top the poll of Iowa Republicans. Santorum narrowly edged Mitt Romney in Iowa back in January. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey is right behind them with 15 percent while two former governors -- Jeb Bush of Florida and Sarah Palin of Alaska -- are tied in fourth place with 10 percent apiece. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky garners 9 percent followed by Rubio with 7 percent and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin with 6 percent.
While Palin has the highest favorable rating with Iowa Republicans -- 70 percent -- all of the potential contenders are in good shape. Huckabee is seen as favorable by 69 percent of the Iowa Republicans surveyed while 12 percent see him in an unfavorable light. While 9 percent view him unfavorably, 62 percent have a favorable opinion of Bush. Rubio is not as well-known but 46 percent of the Republicans surveyed see him favorably and 7 percent unfavorably.
The PPP look at the Democrats finds that Clinton, who lost out to Barack Obama in Iowa back in 2008, towers over other potential candidates for the partys nomination. While 88 percent of the Iowa Democrats surveyed view her in a favorable light, almost two-thirds of them -- 62 percent -- would back Clinton if she runs in 2016. Another member of the Obama team -- Vice President Joe Biden -- places second, if he chooses to make a third bid for the Democratic nomination, with 14 percent.
Other candidates lag in single digits. Elizabeth Warren, currently running to take on U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., in 2012, takes 4 percent, tying her with Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York. Former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana garner 2 percent while Gov. Martin OMalley of Maryland takes 1 percent and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia takes less than 1 percent.
With Clinton saying she has no intention of running in 2016, Biden is in solid shape in Iowa if she opts out. Biden takes 28 percent in that scenario followed by Cuomo with 14 percent, Warren with 10 percent, and Feingold with 9 percent. While Schweitzer remains at 2 percent, Warner moves up to 1 percent and OMalley falls back to less than 1 percent.
If Clinton and Biden both choose not to run in 2016, the poll shows Iowa would be up for grabs with 47 percent undecided and Cuomo beating out the other potential candidates with 17 percent followed by Feingold at 15 percent and Warren at 13 percent. The other candidates lag with less than 5 percent each.
The poll of 346 Iowa Republican primary and caucus voters was takenfrom May 3-6 and had a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent while the survey of 335 Iowa Democrat primary and caucus voters, taken on the same dates, had a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
