Even as he turns his eyes to early caucus and primary states like Iowa and Nevada, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., occupies an odd spot in the early stages of the 2016 Republican presidential contest.
Besides being somewhat in the shadow of former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., Rubio is dividing the experts on whether or not he is a leading contender for the Republican nomination. Gerald Sieb at the Wall Street Journal and Stephen Hayes at the Weekly Standard think Rubio is a top tier candidate. Daniel Larison at the American Conservative, no fan of Rubio on foreign policy, is much more dismissive.
Rubios spot in the field is hard to peg but then 2016 is looking far different than most Republican presidential primaries. The temperamentally conservative Republican primary voters are far less likely to roll the dice on a fresh face, the way Democrats took a chance on the likes of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Republicans generally prefer candidates who have run for president before or were very well-known at the national level: Mitt Romney, John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Dwight Eisenhower, Thomas Dewey. Sometimes Republicans will take a chance -- Wendell Willkie, Barry Goldwater -- but its telling that their only recent nominee who had never run for president before was George W. Bush, son and heir apparent of a prominent GOP dynasty. But so far, past candidates like former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and former Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, arent exactly catching fire for 2016.
Also complicating things is something of another reversal of how the parties usually operate. Traditionally Democrats nominate younger candidates like John F. Kennedy, Clinton and Obama. The Republicans put up older candidates like Reagan, the first Bush, Dole, McCain and Romney. But, again, this time things are far different. Jeb Bush might be in his early 60s but most of the other potential Republican candidates, including Rubio, are in their 40s and 50s. The Democrats seem far older this time out with Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in their 70s and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in their 60s.
All this being the case, its no wonder theres no consensus on where Rubio stands in what is looking like the most competitive Republican primary contest in decades. Theres also no natural base for Rubio. The GOP establishment is far more behind Bush and even Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., than it is Rubio. Social conservatives would rather back someone like Huckabee, Santorum and Perry. The tea party movement would take U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Dr. Ben Carson over Rubio, while libertarians will break for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., over the senator from Florida. Even foreign policy hawks, while liking Rubio, have better fits with the likes of U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., U.S. Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., and former Ambassador John Bolton in the mix.
But even with his weaknesses, including his role in the Gang of Eight on immigration reform, Rubio is far more acceptable to many of these Republican voters than some of the other top candidates. Tea party conservatives will find it hard to swallow Bush while the establishment cringes at the thought of Cruz. Neoconservatives and foreign policy hawks dont like Paul while social conservatives arent big fans of Christie.
Rubio is more acceptable to most of the other GOP factions than several of the other candidates, but even here he has some competition. The same can be said of Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., who is doing far better in the polls than Rubio. While neither Republicans have been as active as Walker and Rubio, the same holds true of two Great Lake governors who could be in the 2016 mix: John Kasich of Ohio and Mike Pence of Indiana.
All this being the case, Rubio is in a strange spot. Hes nobodys top choice and he doesnt have a natural core group of primary voters behind him. At best, Rubio is emerging as a second or third option for many Republicans. That normally would spell disaster in a GOP presidential primary but this field is so wide open and Republicans are so divided that Rubio is still in the game, even if he is nobodys top pick.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
