Marco Rubio will have some big decisions to make in the coming days.
Earlier this year, Rubio said he had three options after the elections: running for president, staying in the Senate or going into private life. Rubio expressed no interest in running for both the presidency and the Senate.
Now the question is which path to take, though heading back into private life seems out of the mix. Rubio was an active campaigner for Republican Senate candidates across the nation, drawing some media attention with his efforts in early presidential states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Before the elections, Rubio made it clear he did not want to stay in the Senate if Democrats remained in charge. Now the Senate is more appealing with the GOP in charge, though admittedly there will be a rough road for some Republican senators in 2016.
Rubio can be pardoned if he continues to look over his shoulder as he tests the presidential waters. There simply isnt enough oxygen for both Rubio and Jeb Bush to run for president in 2016. While they both deny it, Bush and Rubio have to add each other in when factoring whether to run for president. Much of what Rubio will do depends on Bush who has kept the presidential chatter alive.
The Senate remains a solid choice for Rubio. While there are plenty of conservatives unhappy with Rubio on immigration reform, every poll shows Florida Republicans remain largely behind him. Come 2016, if he runs for a second term, Rubio does not have to worry about a serious primary challenge. Hes in strong enough shape with independents that he would start off the Senate election as a favorite over whoever the Democrats put up.
Democrats certainly do better in presidential election years than they do in off-year elections in Florida but, even with that being the case, there isnt exactly a candidate waiting in the wings who could compete with Rubio. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Alan Grayson might entertain the idea but both would be hard pressed to hang with Rubio as Republicans would mobilize in full force against them and their liberal stances would hinder them in the election. There certainly are some promising Democratic congressmen like Patrick Murphy and Ted Deutch but they might be looking at 2018 when Bill Nelson, who will be 76 then, could opt out of a fourth term. Waiting two years for an open seat is probably a better option than taking on an incumbent.
There is one path that certainly seems closed to Rubio: returning to Tallahassee. There had been talk if Charlie Crist beat Rick Scott on Tuesday that Rubio would be the Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2018. There was some merit to the idea. Rubio clearly has Crists number. upsetting and then driving him out of the GOP before beating him in the general election in 2010. If Rubio wanted to wait to make a presidential bid, being governor of Florida would be a better launching pad than serving in the Senate.
But that option is now off the table. With Bush still looming, Rubio has some tough choices ahead about what his plans are for 2016.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
