U.S. Sen. Marco Rubios, R-Fla., high-profile rollout of his presidential campaign this week paid off in Florida, a new poll shows.
Rubio edges former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., in Florida according to an early presidential primary poll from Mason-Dixon released on Friday. Taking 31 percent, Rubio has the slightest of leads over Bush who gets 30 percent. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, pulls 8 percent, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., garners 7 percent while Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., takes 2 percent in the poll while 5 percent back other candidates and 17 percent are undecided.
Bush leads with white Republicans with 32 percent while 29 percent of them back Rubio. But with Hispanic Republicans, it is a different story with 42 percent behind Rubio and only 20 percent for Bush.
The poll finds both Rubio and Bush in solid shape with Florida Republicans. Two-thirds of them -- 66 percent -- see Rubio as favorable while only 7 percent view him as unfavorable. Bush is seen in a favorable light by 59 percent of Florida Republicans while 17 percent see him as unfavorable.
J. Bradford Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon, offered his take in a memo on Friday.
It is relatively clear that Florida will be a battle among favorite sons, Coker wrote. None of the other candidates are likely to invest much time in the state absent a dramatic turn of events.
Although the sub-sample is very small and has a high margin for error, the role of Hispanic GOP voters will be of huge importance, Coker added. With Bush ahead among white Republicans, Rubios thin lead is the result of his stronger support from Hispanics. However, Hispanic voters are also more highly conflicted, with 31 percent saying they are undecided. This is more than twice the percentage of undecided white Republicans (14 percent)."
Still, with most polls before Rubios entry in the race showing Bush ahead in Florida, Coker noted Rubio's lead could be the result of his recent announcement.
It is very possible that Rubios surge reflects a temporary bump from his campaign roll-out and that his numbers may slip some if and when Bush makes his candidacy official too, Coker wrote. The race is on.
The poll of 400 registered Florida Republicans was taken from April 14-16 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
