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Politics

Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush Sitting Pretty in Early 2016 Poll

April 2, 2013 - 6:00pm

A national poll Quinnipiac University released on Wednesday shows two Republicans from Florida -- U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush -- are among the top candidates for their partys presidential nomination.

Rubio tops the poll of Republican voters with 19 percent. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, best known for being Mitt Romneys running mate in 2012, places second with 17 percent. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky takes the bronze with 15 percent followed by Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey with 14 percent. Bush takes fifth place with 10 percent.

Three current governors lag in the low single digits. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana takes 3 percent followed by Scott Walker of Wisconsin with 2 percent and Bob McDonnell of Virginia with 1 percent. Almost a fifth of voters surveyed -- 18 percent -- say they are undecided, while 1 percent back other candidates.

"Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a statement on Wednesday. "Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure, giving the GOP response to the State of the Union."

Looking at Ryans strength in the poll, Brown said the Wisconsin congressman would be taking on historical trends if he runs in 2016.

Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate, Brown said. But history tells us being the running mate on a losing ticket does not help one's presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen."

Still, while Rubio leads the field, the poll did have some bad news for the Florida senator. Only 23 percent of the Republicans polled want to see a senator in the White House, while 59 percent say they want a former governor as president. Brown said this could help some of the possible Republican presidential candidates -- namely, Christie and Bush.

"History indicates that Republicans who win the White House tend to be former governors and there are several thinking about running for the White House in 2016," said Brown. "New Jersey Governor Christopher Christie is obviously the best known at this point, and Jeb Bush makes the top five, but Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell barely register in this survey."

The poll of 712 registered Republican voters was taken from March 26 to April 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.

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