On Saturday, the Republican presidential race turns to South Carolina, which has played a pivotal role in determining the GOP’s presidential nominee in recent elections.
Back in 1988, Republican strategist Lee Atwater set up his home state to be the first primary in the South, making it a firewall for his candidate George H.W. Bush. After finishing third in Iowa, Bush won New Hampshire and essentially clinched the Republican nomination by beating Bob Dole and Pat Robertson in South Carolina.
Eight years later, South Carolina helped save Dole’s campaign after he won Iowa again though not as impressively as he had in 1988 and lost in New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan. Dole bounced back to win South Carolina and went on to cruise over Buchanan to claim the Republican nod.
George W. Bush upheld the family legacy in 2000 after winning in Iowa but losing to John McCain in New Hampshire. In a bitter primary battle, Bush bested McCain in the Palmetto State and went on to win the nomination.
McCain bounced back to win South Carolina in 2008 after winning New Hampshire but losing out to Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Relying on his service in the Navy to win over members of the military community, McCain came back to win a state which had rejected him eight years before.
Last time out, South Carolina Republicans backed a candidate who did not end up as the nominee. Rick Santorum edged Mitt Romney in Iowa but the former Massachusetts governor went on to win New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich from neighboring Georgia won South Carolina in 2012 but Romney bounced back to carry Florida and went on to claim the Republican nomination.
South Carolina is poised to once again play a big role in determining the Republican nominee. Ted Cruz won in Iowa but Donald Trump lapped the field in New Hampshire. Trump leads the polls in South Carolina with Cruz battling Marco Rubio, who placed third in Iowa and a disappointing fifth in New Hampshire, for second.
The stakes are high on Saturday. Here’s what’s on the line for the Republican presidential candidates.
Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor hoped to make a breakthrough in South Carolina after some better debate performances and by having his brother hit the campaign trail for him. But even George W. Bush, who remains popular with South Carolina Republicans, hasn’t been able to move the needle for his brother. Polls show Bush is headed for fourth place and the buzz is starting to build that donors are losing their patience and funds are starting to run short. Earlier this week, the Bush team had to fend off reports that it was about to freeze staffers’ pay. Bush needs an impressive performance on Saturday or else the vultures will start to gather. One thing that could help Bush is having Lindsey Graham in his corner. Graham’s presidential campaign went nowhere but he is a major factor in South Carolina and has easily dispatched primary threats.
Ben Carson. South Carolina should be the end of the line for Carson. After a fourth place finish in Iowa, Carson skipped New Hampshire and turned his focus to the Palmetto State. Polls show Carson isn’t not much of a factor here even as he tries to woo evangelicals and social conservatives who are important in the primary. There’s little to indicate Carson will break double digits on Saturday which would effectively end his campaign, especially as he continues
to lag in the national polls.
Ted Cruz. The Texas senator won Iowa and took third in New Hampshire without focusing much effort in the Granite State. Cruz has been going on the attack against Donald Trump and Marco Rubio but taking punches in return. Battling Rubio for second in the polls, Cruz hopes religious conservatives and evangelicals will boost him in South Carolina and set him up in other states in the South. Cruz will be happy with second but a third place showing, while disappointing, isn’t going to be fatal. Having said that, if Trump blows out the field in South Carolina, Cruz is going to have to figure out a way to slow him down in the SEC primary states.
John Kasich. Of all the Republican hopefuls, the Ohio governor has the least at stake in South Carolina. After his second place finish in New Hampshire, Kasich focused on other states that will hold contests down the road. Kasich has pretty much ignored the Palmetto State and won’t even be there on Saturday night. South Carolina Republicans have responded in kind based on the polls but a few have shown Kasich breaking double digits. That seems unlikely but, however he does, Kasich can shrug off the results or take some pleasure in a better showing than expected.
Marco Rubio. After an awful debate performance, Rubio plummeted to fifth in New Hampshire but he’s bounced back pretty well in South Carolina. Rubio’s team says the headwinds are at their back and he’s pulled in some impressive endorsements. Tim Scott fell in line behind Rubio right after New Hampshire and Nikki Haley announced her endorsement this week. For the moment, Rubio’s team seems more focused on beating Ted Cruz for second and, if the Florida Republican does that, he will be happy with Saturday night’s results, especially if Bush collapses.
Donald Trump. With some surveys showing up by double digits, Trump is leading the polls in South Carolina. But Trump led the polls in Iowa, where he lost, as well in New Hampshire, where he won. Anything but a win in South Carolina will be a setback for Trump and he’ll face some questions if Rubio or Cruz is right on his heels for second. One thing to keep in mind is Trump’s current battle with Pope Francis. That shouldn’t hurt him too much in the Palmetto State but it could be a drawback if Catholics break from him in primaries and caucuses down the road.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
.
