Lost in the shadow of the presidential contest, the race to become Florida’s next U.S. senator was shaped greatly in the past year, setting the stage for what is expected to be one of the most important contests in the nation as the GOP looks to preserve its majority in 2016.
When Marco Rubio officially got in the presidential race and said he would not seek a second Senate term, he set off a scramble to replace him even as some major contenders decided not to jump in the water. While Tallahassee is buzzing that he has Senate aspirations, Rick Scott is not running in 2016 though 2018 seems like a real possibility. Republican Congressmen Jeff Miller, Tom Rooney, Dan Webster and Ted Yoho all took a pass on getting in. So did Jeff Atwater who also explored getting in against Bill Nelson in 2012. On the Democratic side, Corrine Brown, Charlie Crist,Ted Deutch, Gwen Graham and Debbie Wasserman Schultz all decided against running.
On the Democratic side, Patrick Murphy burst out of the gate, rounding up much of his party’s establishment’s support. Murphy has reeled in some major endorsements in Washington, D.C. and across Florida. While it’s still early and voters are far more focused on the presidential race, Murphy is the prohibitive favorite for his party’s nomination.
From the DSCC on down, it’s easy to see why the Democratic leadership wants Murphy to share the ticket with Hillary Clinton in November: he simply doesn’t have the baggage that his main rival Alan Grayson brings and appears far more electable. Grayson’s an underdog in the race but he’ll spend the next months attacking Murphy’s credentials, insisting his rival has worked with the GOP on too many issues. The question will be if Florida Democrats vote with their heads and choose Murphy or go with their hearts to back Grayson. Other candidates simply aren’t factors yet though attorney and Navy veteran Pam Keith has some potential to make a splash if she builds up a warchest.
David Jolly leads the polls on the Republican side by a small margin but most GOP voters are undecided on who to back. Jolly has nailed down much of his Tampa Bay base while Ron DeSantis has done the same on the First Coast and Carlos Lopez-Cantera has rounded up support in South Florida. Also in the mix is businessman, veteran and former CIA operative Todd Wilcox whose focus on national security and terrorism could help him if those remain the leading issues through 2016 though DeSantis will also tackle those issues and does have the support of some national conservative groups. Jolly will showcase his fiscal conservatism while Lopez-Cantera is honing an anti-Washington message which could play well with primary voters. All of the candidates have strengths and flaws; none of them have much name recognition. They’ll spend the next few months trying to change that though they will continue to be eclipsed by the presidential race.
Two potential Republican candidates are waiting on the sidelines. Bill McCollum has expressed some interest in a third Senate bid while conservative leader Dan Bongino, who ran for the Senate and for Congress in Maryland in recent election cycles, has also left the door open. McCollum’s easily better known than the current candidates while Bongino has something of a following due to his national media appearances.
Outside of the Libertarian ranks, there isn’t much to show that other third parties and independent candidates will be giving this race too much attention. Libertarians have made some strides in Florida in recent elections after Gary Johnson’s presidential bid and Adrian Wyllie’s gubernatorial campaign. Currently, attorney Augustus Sol Invictus is running for the Libertarian nod and he’s drawn national attention for all the wrong reasons including sacrificing a goat and drinking its blood as part of a pagan ritual. Wyllie and much of the Libertarian leadership has line up against Invictus, pointing to his past statements and saying he backs eugenics and questioning his principles. There’s buzz that Republican strategist Roger Stone, currently getting a bit of national attention for his book on the Clintons and work for Donald Trump, could get in the race as a Libertarian.
The Senate race won’t command as much attention as the presidential race of course. But Democrats are starting to like their chances of flipping the Senate in November as Republican incumbents have to defend their seats in blue states like Illinois, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. It’s tough to imagine the Democrats taking control of the Senate without picking up the Florida seat, raising the already high stakes in the Sunshine State come November.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
