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Politics

Look Outside the Beltway for a Rick Scott Challenger

June 3, 2013 - 6:00pm

With Rick Scott continuing to struggle in the polls, chatter keeps on coming that the governor could face a challenge for the Republican nomination in 2014. But if it's going to come, it likely won't be from Washington.

An old foe resurfaced last week to insist Scott could face a primary in 2014. Former Attorney General Bill McCollum closed the door on challenging Scott in the Republican primaries next year. During the 2010 election cycle, the governor defeated McCollum in a close and bitter contest.

Still, McCollum, who was very active in helping Newt Gingrichs presidential bid in Florida in 2012, wouldn't be surprised if another candidate challenges Scott in the primaries. After losing the primary in 2010, McCollum refused to endorse Scott who went on to win the closest gubernatorial race in Florida history.

Most pundits have insisted Scott could face a primary threat from Tallahassee. House Speaker Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel, or Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam have garnered the most buzz mainly due to their criticism of Scotts support for accepting federal dollars to expand Medicaid as mandated by President Barack Obamas federal health-care law. Neither of them has done much in the way of indicating they are ready to challenge Scott.

Less attention has been paid to threats Scott could face from Washington Republicans -- and theres a reason for that. No Republican in the state congressional delegation appears to be gearing up to challenge Scott.

Take Floridas junior senator. Marco Rubio is an accomplished politico and would easily crush Scott in the primaries if he wanted to be governor in 2014. But the Miami Republican, who served as speaker of the Florida House, has put Tallahassee well behind him. With most political observers expecting Rubio to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, he has no interest in challenging Scott.

Looking at Florida Republicans in the U.S. House, there are no likely contenders. Some of the Republicans in Congress have ties to Tallahassee, but they appear very unlikely to challenge the incumbent.

Take Jeff Miller, for instance. Miller served in the Florida House and was an aide to longtime Florida Agriculture Commissioner Doyle Conner. But, after being elected to Congress in 2001, Millers focus has been on Washington and he chairs the Veterans Affairs Committee. Hes also largely unknown outside the Panhandle. While its easy to see Miller running for agriculture commissioner if the chance arises -- though he passed on it in 2010 -- its impossible to see him running against Scott.

The same holds true for Ander Crenshaw, who has ties to Tallahassee as well. Granted, Crenshaw served as president of the Florida Senate and ran for governor in 1994. But he has risen up the ladder in Congress and is fairly secure in his seat. Not a likely candidate to primary Scott.

A long-serving member of the Legislature who rose to be House speaker and Senate majority leader, Dan Webster seems a more likely opponent than Miller or Crenshaw. After all, Webster has tried to run for statewide office before, with little success. But Webster seems fairly secure in his Central Florida congressional seat and has done nothing to indicate he will primary Scott in 2014.

Its tough to envision other Republicans in Congress challenging the governor in 2014, either. Now in his early 80s, Bill Young, the dean of congressional Republicans, is already off and running to keep his seat in 2014. Dennis Ross served in the Florida House for eight years and he made some waves in Tallahassee but he seems content in Washington. Vern Buchanan is the only Floridian on the Ways and Means Committee and shows no interest in leaving his powerful post.

Despite her time in the Legislature back in the 1980s, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is more concerned with global affairs than Tallahassee these days. And while its easy to see Tom Rooneyas a U.S. Senate candidate down the road, hehas always had more pull in Washington than Tallahssee. John Mica has served in the House for decades and has made no attempt ever to change jobs. Steve Southerland, Mario Diaz-Balart, Rich Nugent, Bill Posey and Gus Bilirakis are all largely unknown outside their districts.

Nor do any of the three freshmen Republicans appear likely to challenge Scott. Ted Yoho is a maverick, to be sure, but the North Florida congressman seems more focused on Washington. The same holds true for Ron DeSantis, who is garnering some national notice for taking aim at Attorney General Eric Holder. During his first months in Congress, Trey Radel has done little to expand his profile across the state. Its easy to see these congressional freshmen attempting to move up the political ladder --but not against Scott in 2014.

While he should have the advantage in a primary with his strong war chest, personal finances and his control of the state party machinery, Scott could face some problems from the right Republican opponent. Some Republicans are concerned this governor could lead to their first defeat in a gubernatorial election since 1994. The nasty battle against McCollum has left some bitter memories. But Scott should be able to resist a primary challenge -- and should not expect an opponent in Floridas congressional delegation. While Scott could face a major Republican rival in 2014, it wont be from the Beltway.

Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.

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