When state senator and Florida Republican Party Chairman John Thrasher shared a St. Augustine stage last week with statewide GOP candidates at a tea party rally, it was conveniently located in his district.
Thrasher acknowledges he needs tea party help. One of the Democratic Party's biggest targets in the Legislature, Thrasher is struggling to fend-off a stern election challenge from Democrat Deborah Gianoulis, a former television anchor familiar to most voters in Senate District 8, which hugs the coast from Jacksonville to the Daytona Speedway.
"Voters are frustrated, you hear that at these tea party rallies and, really, all over," said Thrasher, reflecting on the event which brought 5,000 activists to a downtown park Saturday to hear gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott, U.S. Senate contender Marco Rubio and Republican Cabinet candidates.
"Folks are fired up. And they're right in my district," Thrasher said.
But Thrasher, who has been in or around government for a lot of years, doesn't think he's a target -- he looks at these activists as his allies. "I think we're going to be fine."
Thrasher, House Speaker-designate Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park, and incoming Democratic leader Ron Saunders of Key West are each facing potentially dangerous opposition as Florida's political parties seek a major prize in November -- the defeat of a rival leader in a year when anti-incumbent fever appears to be peaking.
But political rub-outs are rare in the Florida Legislature.
The last time it occurred, Republican John Renke of New Port Richey was unseated in 1990 when he was positioned to become House minority leader. Renke's defeat by Democrat Phil Mishkin was engineered, in part, by then-House Speaker T.K. Wetherell, intent on avenging the defeat two years earlier of Democrat Sam Bell, then poised to become speaker, by Republican Richard Graham.
Saunders, part of the House Democratic leadership team targeting Renke, insisted that this time around, the party is not openly working to unseat Thrasher or Cannon. But if it happens, that's OK, too, Saunders said.
"It takes a lot to knock out an incoming leader in their own district," said Saunders, who faces Republican Morgan McPherson and tea party contender Henry Llorella in November. "With Dean and I, you figure that if both of us win, we're going to have to work together on a lot of tough issues next year. But, sure, all politics is local. And I'm planning to stay put in my district through the election."
In an autumn when a lousy economy is fueling a fierce voter discontent that may threaten incumbents from both parties, none of the challenged leaders say they feel comfortable enough to devote much time to others' campaigns. Saunders' district, which runs from the Keys through Miami-Dade County, has 610 more Republican voters than Democrats, and a wild card, 26 percent non-affiliated voting population.
Cannon, too, represents an Orange County district that has clearly trended Democratic. It was drawn following the 2000 Census with an 11 percent Republican voter edge that has since shifted to a 38-35 percentage-point Democratic plurality.
"I want to bring back our House incumbents and support our candidates across-the-board," said Cannon, who is facing Democrat Amy Mercado and tea party candidate Nina Virone in November. "But you have to run your own race first."
Mercado has only $11,487 cash-on-hand for her campaign, compared to Cannon's $513,179, according to finance reports filed last week. And Mercado concedes she has an uphill fight to unseat Cannon.
But Mercado, business manager for a commodity board and the daughter of Orange County Democratic Vice-chair Carmen Torres, said she is relying on grass-roots support she's been attempting to build since entering the race last year.
"I'm positive that people are ready for a change," Mercado said. "They've seen corruption run rampant in Tallahassee. Cannon has been focused solely on himself and his Republican leadership role."
Among the three legislative leaders facing opposition, Thrasher would seem best positioned for re-election, based on district voting patterns. Clearly favoring GOP candidates in recent years, District 8 has 14 percent more Republican registered voters than Democrats, with 20 percent of district voters having no-party affiliation.
But finance reports show Gianoulis holding a remarkable $10-to-$1 fund-raising advantage -- with Thrasher's cash-on-hand dwindled to $13,174 after overcoming a self-financed, Republican primary challenger. A poll commissioned last week by the Florida Democratic Party also put the race as a statistical dead heat, with the party also financing the campaign's first TV ad for Gianoulis.
Thrasher shrugs off these developments.
"I don't need any party money," Thrasher said, ruling out seeking cash from the state GOP he chairs. "People know me. I'll raise money. And voters don't yet know that she's a liberal, Nancy Pelosi Democrat who backs Obamacare. These are the things we're going to talk about."
The district was represented for a decade by the late Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville, until his death last year from cancer. Thrasher was elected last October following a combative Republican primary in which political spending committees allied with Florida trial lawyers fiercely opposed him as a former House speaker who promoted lawsuit limits and an ex-lobbyist for the Florida Medical Association.
Once in the Senate, Thrasher heightened his profile when fellow Republican leaders drafted him to succeed disgraced Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer. Thrasher also enhanced his lightning-rod status by sponsoring legislation last spring that would eliminate teacher tenure -- drawing fierce opposition from the state's largest teachers union which led to the bill being vetoed by Gov. Charlie Crist.
Thrasher's deep partisan stripes -- and King's legacy -- helped draw Gianoulis into the race, she said.
"I just don't see us moving forward with the leadership we have now in state government," said Gianoulis, an anchor for more than two decades at Jacksonville stations. "I'm a Democrat, but I supported Jim King for years. I would try to bring the bipartisan approach that he had and try to take the anger we're seeing from voters and direct it toward building this community again."
While Thrasher is pushing to attract tea party supporters, Gianoulis said she is not discounting her appeal to many of those same voters. Gianoulis said she drove by last week's St. Augustine rally and was tempted to stop by.
"Some of the things I stand for, they stand for," she said. "I mean, who's the longtime incumbent here? It's John Thrasher, not me."
