After revelations that his chief of staff has been implicated in a voter fraud scheme, U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Fla, is in major trouble as he looks to win a second term in 2014.
Late last week, Jeffrey Garcia, the freshman Democrats chief of staff but no relation, resigned his position after his name was linked to an investigation on absentee ballot fraud in the 2012 primaries. Other political and congressional staffers from the Garcia camp have also been targeted with search warrants as the investigation continues.
Clearly both parties believe Garcia is in jeopardy. Republicans are already demanding to know what the congressman knew and when. Democrats, namely the National Democratic Congressional Committee, are cheering Garcia for quickly demanding Jeffrey Garcias head after his name surfaced in the investigation.
But as his focus turns to 2014, Garcia will be in an uncomfortable position as he battles for a second term. When he challenged freshman Republican U.S. Rep. David Rivera in the last election cycle, Garcia went all out to attack the incumbent on ethics issues. Riveras political standing was undermined by a host of allegations against the congressman -- including trying to help fund a Democratic primary opponent to weaken Garcia.
The results of the procession of negative stories about Rivera were pretty dramatic. While he bested Garcia in the 2010 election cycle 52 percent to 43 percent, Rivera lost support -- and in 2012 his congressional seat when the Democrat beat him 54 percent to 43 percent. While his seat was changed slightly by redistricting, Rivera had clearly lost his political footing due to a host of bad press mostly resulting from ethics issues.
Now Garcia faces the same problem and how he handles it will determine his fate. Even without the ethics issue, Garcia is not exactly the most secure Democrat in Congress. Besides his loss to Rivera in 2010, he was also bested by Mario Diaz-Balart in a congressional race in 2008. Garcia also generally does better in presidential election cycles -- witness his strong showing in 2012 and even 2008 when he took 47 percent against Diaz-Balart. As he gears up to run again in 2014, Garcia will not have Barack Obamas coattails to boost Democratic turnout.
With possible scandals swirling around Garcia, Republicans are lining up to challenge him. Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall has already announced that he is seeking the Republican nomination. So has former Miami-Dade County Commission Chair Joe Martinez. Miami-Dade County School Board member Carlos Curbello increasingly appears likely to seek the Republican nomination and he is drawing on the support of some major GOP leaders. State Rep. Julio Felix Diaz is also likely to enter the contest.
While Miami-Dade is increasingly friendly to Democrats, Garcia can expect a fight on his hands. Voters turned against Rivera due to scandals and ethics issues. Having attacked Riveras ethics, Garcia could find the same tactic used against him in 2014. For the moment, Garcia ranks as the most vulnerable congressional Democrat in Florida and Republicans will go all out to knock him off in 2014.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
