While Gov. Rick Scott might be correct that his policies are turning Floridas economy around, his constant mantra of its working is simply not the case when it comes to reversing his political fortunes.
On Friday, Scott and his allies pointed to a Department of Economic Opportunity report that found Florida's unemployment rate has dropped from 7.8 percent in February to 7.5 percent in March. Scott and his assorted supporters crowed its working and tried to contrast the new numbers with the unemployment rate under former Gov. Charlie Crist, unannounced Democratic front-runner to challenge the governor next year.
Scott and his backers are correct in noting that Floridas economy is on the rebound. But they will need more than healthy unemployment numbers to boost the governors re-election chances.
Part of the problem comes from the Republicans themselves. When Barack Obama and his team pointed to lower unemployment numbers during last years presidential campaign, Republicans came out in droves to insist the stats and figures meant nothing. GOP leaders and conservative pundits outdid themselves to note that the unemployment figures did not include people who had given up on their job searches and insisted the real unemployment numbers were much higher than those being trumpeted by the White House. Now, a lot of the same people who moaned that the unemployment numbers could not be trusted when it came to Obama are assuring voters they show Scotts policies are effective.
But another part of the problem comes from Scott and the myths that have developed around him. When he came out of nowhere in 2010 to beat Bill McCollum in the primary and Alex Sink in the general election, Scott told voters that his business background would help turn Florida around and create 700,000 new jobs in 7 years.
Certainly Scotts experience in the private sector and focus on job creation helped his campaign -- but there were other factors. With his opposition to Obamas health-care law, Scott helped trump McCollum, who was leading the charge in filing a constitutional challenge to it. Scott also was able to call into question McCollums conservative credentials by hammering him on immigration.
All in all, 2010 was a banner year for Republicans across Florida as Marco Rubio buried Crist, who had left the GOP to run with no party affiliation; and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the U.S. Senate race and Democratic incumbents in Congress and the Legislature went down in droves. The three Republican candidates for state Cabinet offices crushed their Democratic opponents.
But, despite 2010 being a tremendous year for Republicans across the state and nation, Scott beat lackluster Democratic nominee Sink in the closest gubernatorial election in Florida history. With Scott as their candidate, for the first time in 16 years, Republicans came very close to losing a gubernatorial election in Florida.
If Scott wants a second term, he might need to study the enemys strategy. With an impressive social media campaign, winning young and minority voters by staggering margins and a well-oiled political operation, Obama was able to win a second term by focusing on more than the economy. Scott needs to take a page from Obamas playbook and expand his political outreach to other points besides job creation. It certainly worked for Scott against McCollum last time out and it cant hurt the governors already lousy poll numbers.
Scott seems to get this to some extent, though his efforts so far in 2013 to expand his message arent quite catching on. Looking to pick up votes on education, Scotts call for across-the-board pay raises for Floridas teachers didnt inspire the teachers' unions and only left conservatives grumbling that only good teachers should be getting raises.
Likewise, Scotts proposal to pay state employees more did nothing to appease the public employee unions while conservatives were left wondering why he wanted to increase the cost of government. By supporting accepting federal dollars for Medicaid expansion mandated by Obamas health-care law, Scott only turned members of his own party against him and droves of Democrats arent going to abandon their party over it. With the Legislature nearing a final budget, Scott looks poised to sign the largest budget in state history -- pleasing neither supporters of more government nor conservatives who want to see less of it.
As the legislative session winds down, Scott needs something to focus on in the summer as he awaits Crist, Sink or whoever the Democrats run against him. Trailing in almost every single poll by double digits, no matter how much money he reaps in his war chest he needs to find something to broaden his appeal to independent voters without turning off his base. He needs more than to point to unemployment numbers and say, Its working.
Simply put, Scott needs to find something big to latch onto. That didnt happen in the legislative session when Scott pushed two issues -- a teachers pay raise which did nothing to move the needle and eliminating the manufacturing sales tax which, while helpful to businesses and job creation, isnt exactly an issue that determines who voters pick. As November 2014 looms closer, Scott needs to go back to his playbook against McCollum and find other issues besides jobs to highlight.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
