Republican insiders say Jeff Atwater's decision to stay out of the U.S. Senate contest means it's now Rep. Connie Mack IV's race to lose.
Some say Mack is doing a pretty good job of it.
Javier Manjarres, the Shark Tank blogger who broke the story that Atwater was "considering" a run, said the courting of the state's chief financial officer "showed that grassroots/tea party activists around the state are not convinced that either Congressman Connie Mack or former Senator George LeMieux can beat Democratic Senator Bill Nelson."
"Mack enjoys incredible name ID, but his campaigning prowess does not compare to LeMieux's. Yet he will most likely be the nominee -- if he can find a way to coalesce grassroots conservatives," Manjarres said.
Manjarres said the looming court case of disgraced RPOF Chairman Jim Greer and LeMieux's lackluster fundraising numbers put the former Charlie Crist chief of staff "in a dire position."
But the conservative South Florida blogger doesn't count LeMieux out.
"In his defense, LeMieux's message has begun to resonate with activists, and has taken his campaign to all points in Florida -- a move very reminiscent of Marco Rubio in 2010."
Nancy McGowan, a Jacksonville-based conservative activist and fundraiser, sees a shift to LeMieux.
"If it comes down to these two, George is the stronger candidate in the general election, and in the primary.
"If you listen to [Mack and LeMieux] speak, there's no doubt. George is Emory University, Phi Beta Kappa, Georgetown.
"There's nothing of substance by Mack. If his name were Connie Smith, would people support him?" McGowan muses.
Contrary to conventional thinking, McGowan believes that LeMieux is more conservative than Mack on the fiscal and social issues that mobilize GOP voters.
"This is one of many reasons Connie Mack will go down. Like Charlie Crist, his supporters are not conservatives."
Even Roger Stone, a veteran GOP strategist and an unstinting critic of LeMieux, says "Mack's energy level and sense of entitlement are problems."
"Mack cannot beat Nelson by screaming 'liberal, liberal, liberal' -- the [New York Republican consultant Arthur] Finkelstein formula."
Still, Rick Wilson, a GOP strategist based in North Florida, asserts, "As of today, the race is now Connie Mack's to consolidate."
"Just like the presidential race, Republicans will now quickly coalesce around a nominee because control of the Senate is too important to leave in the hands of a lockstep Obama sycophant like Bill Nelson."
Henry Kelley, a tea party leader from Fort Walton Beach, said the Atwater boomlet at least had the salutatory effect of focusing news coverage on "a remarkably uncovered race."
"Entirely too much energy is being spent on a presidential race when Florida controls one thing -- the next U.S. senator from Florida," Kelley said.
While saying he did not expect grassroots or tea party Republicans to rally around any one candidate in the primary -- "they are entirely too independent-minded for that" -- Kelley said, "I do hope we see civil campaigning and a serious focus on the issues."
"Hopefully, the attention CFO Atwater brought up will wake up some campaign staffs to get serious and get the messaging going, and I don't mean sniping at each other or name calling," Kelley said.
The Panhandle tea partier said he's "not sold" on the notion that Mack has the inside track.
"People will coalesce around the candidate most likely to be capable of defeating Nelson, and that jury is still out."
Another tea party leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said one name would galvanize the GOP base like no other: Jeb Bush.
"If he jumped into this race right now he would beat everyone in the primary and have a damn good chance at Nelson. I personally think he is being selfish and should get into the race."
Bush has repeatedly denied interest in the job, while sending mixed signals as to whether he would consider a vice presidential nomination.
"The guy wants to tell us how to educate our kids, yet when he has ability to swing a vote in the Senate he punts," the disgusted tea partier said.
Fading from the early Senate conversation has been Mike McCalister. The retired Army colonel finished a close second behind Adam Hasner (now running for Congress) at the party's Presidency 5 straw poll in Orlando last summer, but his appeal has eroded.
"All he does is tell everyone what is wrong. Hell, we know what is wrong. He gives no solutions," one party activist grumbled on background.
Doug Guetzloe, an Orlando-based GOP consultant and co-founder of the Florida TEA Party, said, "McCalister is still the favorite for most tea party folks, but he does not have the juice to go to the next level -- either with money or organization."
Guetzloe, who left the TEA Party last year to return to the Republican fold, predicted that Mack will win the nomination.
"Even though I'm not keen on 'legacy' candidates, he's got the money, the name and the looks," Guetzloe said of the Naples Republican whose father, Connie Mack III, was a popular U.S. senator from Florida.
But name identification -- or, in Mack's case, misidentification -- won't be nearly enough in November, he warned.
"Nelson will dust off the original campaign strategy of hugging the middle vigorously and will benefit from a strong Obama GOTV effort in Florida. Even if Obama loses by 6 points, Nelson could still win by 8," Guetzloe predicted.
McGowan, who supported Atwater's entry into the race, fears a blowout if Mack is the Republican nominee.
While LeMieux, a Fort Lauderdale attorney, is inextricably linked to the GOP bete noir Crist, McGowan notes that LeMieux endorsed Rubio's Senate bid the day after Crist bolted the party. Mack's belated endorsement came weeks later.
Many tea party and grassroots activists well remember that former RPOF chairman Al Cardenas and other insiders backed Crist over Rubio "after watching Crist wreck and undermine the Republican Party for four years," recalls McGowan, noting that many of the same crew back Mack today.
As for l'affair Greer, there is no indication that LeMieux's name appeared on any of the financial documents implicating the former RPOF boss. Nor does the former interim senator carry Mack's political baggage of budget-busting earmarks and a spotty attendance while residing part-time with a second wife, Rep. Mary Bono, R-Calif., in Palm Springs.
Here in the Sunshine State, GOP operatives report that LeMieux has built an impressive statewide organization, with a strong network in the seven counties that comprise Northeast Florida.
"George's team here is much more to the right than Mack's. You have to win these seven counties, or you don't win the state," McGowan said.
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
