Jeff Atwater might be a no-go for the 2016 Senate race, but the Republican bench in Florida is deep enough to ensure the GOP will have a strong candidate. Tom Rooney is starting to emerge as the new top choice.
Atwater stunned most political observers Saturday when news emerged that he will not run for the Senate if Marco Rubio, as is expected, enters the presidential race on Monday. Having won two statewide elections and having led the Florida Senate, Atwater would have brought a lot of advantages to the table.
But the GOP has plenty of other horses in the stable for the Senate race and at the top of the list is a congressman who could follow the path blazed by a rising Republican star from Arkansas. Tom Cotton has risen quickly to the Senate by stressing his military service, his conservatism and looking to change Washington. Tom Rooney served as an officer in the Army and went on to become a conservative congressmen.
Rooney sits on the Armed Forces and the Intelligence committees which gives him, along with his military experience, a strong background on foreign policy and military matters. Add to the mix Rooney's work on agriculture, ranging from citrus issues to cattle. While he is unknown to many voters outside his district, Rooney's family name and connections to the family, which owns thePittsburghSteelers, helps him significantly. Rooney certainly has the right background to shine for Florida Republicans.
There are other candidates, of course, who could be in the mix. But, if Rooney runs, several Republican groups -- including the NRSC -- will look to rally donors and conservatives behind the congressman. Rooney does have the edge on some of the other potential candidates.Will Weatherford is a favorite of many of the same donors who would have backed an Atwater campaign, but the former House speaker is still an unknown quantity and could be more focused on Tallahassee. Carlos Lopez-Cantera is also largely unknown, despite his standing as Rick Scotts lieutenant governor.
Looking at Rooney's colleagues on Capitol Hill, Vern Buchanan has received some attention as a possible Senate candidate, but if he runs, he would have to give up his new seat on the Budget Committee and his place on Ways and Means. Theres certainly room for a tea party stalwart like Curt Clawson or Ted Yoho, but theres not enough oxygen for more than one of them in the primary. Facing an increasingly competitive seat and going nowhere in the House after his failed coup against John Boehner, Dan Webster would at least have to consider a Senate bid. But Webster has stumbled badly in his bids for statewide office. Ron DeSantis has much the same background as Rooney, but does not have the experience or the agricultural ties. DeSantis is nevertheless a rising star and will be a a factor down the road.
There are also former Senate candidates who could be waiting in the wings. After flopping against Bill Nelson, its tough to imagine a second try for Connie Mack. George LeMieux tried to get back to the Senate and he is a favorite of some Washington Republicans. If LeMieux wants another shot at returning to the Senate, this could be his last shot. Mike Haridopolos still has a healthy war chest from his brief Senate run which could help him in 2016. However, none of them has Rooney's strengths.
Florida Republicans have often backed candidates with no electoral experience in recent years: Rick Scott, Pam Bondi, Yoho, Clawson and DeSantis. Something like that could happen again if a businessman with deep pockets enters the race.
Even with Atwater out, Republicans have a strong enough bench to help in their efforts to retain the seat and Rooney looks like a strong choice as the next man up.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
