Jeb Bush continues to defy gravity with Florida Republicans as he leaves the door open to running for president in 2016, a sign that, if conservatives are going to derail him, they will have to do it in early contests.
With his stances on Common Core and immigration, Bush is in hot water with conservatives across the country and that will hurt him in Iowa and New Hampshire. But thats not the case in Florida where Bush remains the favorite son.
St. Leo University brought out a poll on Wednesday which shows Bush is far ahead of his possible Republican rivals. Bush takes 34 percent in the almost 20-candidate field, far ahead of Mitt Romney in second with 15 percent. Almost 70 percent of Florida Republicans want Bush to run in 2016. Bush far outpaces Marco Rubio in their home turf with 57 percent of Florida Republicans choosing Bush and only 21 percent wanting Rubio if the choice comes down to those two.
Bush is also the only Republican beating Hillary Clinton in head-to-head match-ups in the St. Leo Poll. That will be a factor in 2016 since its tough to imagine how Republicans reclaim the White House without Florida. Bush edges Clinton by 1 percent while she beats the other Republicans -- ahead of Rubio by 4 percent, Romney by 7 percent, Chris Christie by 8 percent, Rand Paul by 16 percent and Ted Cruz by 23 percent.
To be sure, Bush will draw a great deal of fire from the right on immigration, Common Core and other issues if he enters the race. But Bush also can draw on other candidates support. Its almost impossible to imagine Bush and Romney both running since they generally draw from the same base. More than a few of those Romney supporters will go to Bush if their candidate doesnt run again.
If he enters the race, Bush will face a grueling 2015. Bush will be the focus of the other candidates in the series of debates that will shape the field. Nor do the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire favor him.
But if Bush survives those contests, he should be in better shape as the contest turns to the Sun Belt. The base his father and brother built in Texas is still around -- just ask Jebs son George P. Bush who is now a rising star in the Lone Star State. Bush also has the fundraising support to go the distance.
If conservatives are going to knock Bush off, they need to do it early: namely in Iowa and the debates in 2015. Thats no easy task but its a necessary one for the right, even as Bush looks like the man to beat in the biggest prize in the Electoral College: his home state of Florida.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
