With the off-year election out of the way, politicos now are turning their attention to 2016 -- and more than a few eyes will be on Republicans from Florida who are starting to signal their intentions.
Florida Republicans could have a sizable dilemma in the coming weeks. The political waters simply arent deep enough for both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. If Bush and Rubio both run for the White House, they would cannibalize each others support. Certainly the Bush and Rubio camps are aware of this. The question is, which one will jump in and which one will stay out?
Bush is starting to get a little more attention. Part of this comes from his brothers new book on their father, which was the front page story of Mondays USA Todayand is getting national media attention. In the resulting interviews, George W. Bush is pretty clear on what he thinks his brother should do: run for president in 2016.
But Rubio is also testing the presidential waters. He was active in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in this years elections and has said he will make a decision about 2016 in the coming weeks.
Still, even as he keeps the door open to 2016, things are starting to shape up to keep Rubio in the Senate. Rubio was pretty adamant that he did not want to keep serving in the Senate if Democrats remained in charge. With the Republicans now controlling the Senate and looking ahead to 2016 when they face a tough fight to keep it, pressure will rise on Rubio to stay where he is.
Age is another factor. Bush is 61; Rubio is only 43. While Republicans will often nominate older candidates for president -- Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain -- Bush is in his political prime when it comes to age. Rubio can wait.
Bushs people have generally been more open about saying their man is running for president than Rubios. Increasingly, Republicans in the know think Bush will run for president while Rubio stays in the Senate.
That seems to be the consensus from Republicans who would explore running for the Senate if Rubio opts out of a second term. Take Allen West, for example. With his tea party base and conservative supporters, West would be a major factor in a Republican primary for an open Senate seat even if Democrats relish the thought of facing him in a general election. West certainly threw his name out there as being interested in a Senate bid if Rubio decided not to keep his seat. But last week, West bolted out of Florida to lead a think tank in Texas.
As the 2016 presidential race kicks into full gear in the next few months, Bush and Rubio will get more than their share of attention. But all the tea leaves indicate Bush is far more likely to enter the race than Rubio.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
