In New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida stands just below the first tier of candidates in the potential field of Republican presidential hopefuls in 2016.
The University of New Hampshire (UNH) and WMUR released the Granite State poll this week, which found Bush, who is considered for a possible White House run in 2016, firmly in the second tier in the Granite State.
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., leads the pack in New Hampshire with 17 percent, edging Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey who follows with 16 percent. The second tier consists of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.,who takes third with 9 percent, followed by Bush with 8 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., whose name was floated as a possible Republican candidate in New Hampshire, gets 7 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, with 6 percent.
The rest of the field trails in low single digits. Bushs old ally U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., takes 4 percent, tying him with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin wins 2 percent while Gov. Rick Perry of Texas has the support of 1 percent. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, U.S. Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., and U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, all lag behind with less than 1 percent.
Unlike Rubio, whose support has dropped during the year, or Paul and Christie who have seen their support move up in New Hampshire, Bush has been fairly steady in the Granite State. Bush has been steady in New Hampshire based on UNH and WMUR Granite State polls released throughout 2013. Back in February and April, Bush stood at 5 percent in New Hampshire. In July, he moved up to 10 percent.
For the most part, New Hampshire Republicans thoughts on Bush havent changed during the year. In the most recent poll, 47 percent of New Hampshire Republicans see Bush as favorable and 27 percent view him as unfavorable. Back in February, 53 percent saw Bush as favorable and 31 percent as unfavorable. This moved to 48 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable in April before slightly improving to 53 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable in July.
Still, Bush has garnered a core of Republicans who will not support him under any circumstances, with 8 percent of those surveyed in the new poll saying this. Again, this number hasnt moved much this year. It was 6 percent back in February, 8 percent in April and 11 percent in July.
Regardless, Bush seems to be in the same boat as another national figure who could be running for the Republican nomination in 2016 -- Paul Ryan. While Bush is well-known as the son of one president and the brother of another, Ryan was Mitt Romneys running mate on the Republican presidential ticket in 2012. While neither Bush nor Ryan has led the pack in New Hampshire, their numbers have generally been steady throughout the year.
On the Democratic side, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead with 64 percent. Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass, tie for second with 6 percent each. Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York takes 2 percent followed by Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts with 1 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., newly elected U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley take less than 1 percent. U.S. Sen. Kristen Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and Gov. John Hickenlooper lag with 0 percent each. Patrick and Booker have closed the door to running in 2016.
The poll of 663 New Hampshire voters was taken from Oct. 9-16 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com.
