Websites and organizations of every description are looking to draft former Gov. Jeb Bush and former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough, who now hosts a morning news show on MSNBC, into what probably will be a crowded field gunning for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.
Add to those names a third. The rise of former House Speaker Marco Rubio, the Republican candidate and the clear front-runner in the U.S. Senate race, has supporters pointing to his charisma and ability to run a rocket of a campaign -- and they're saying don't rule him out.
While none of the three has been particularly active in laying the groundwork for a presidential bid, they all have backers urging them to run -- and taking to the Internet to do it.
Possible Republican presidential candidates include former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, U.S. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former New York Gov. George Pataki, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, U.S. Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.
As the son of one president and the brother of another, Jeb Bush has been the center of national attention during his political career. There were attempts to encourage him to run for the White House in 2008, though that was deemed unlikely as his brother was just finishing an unpopular presidency, and even an effort to enlist the former governor in 2010 to run for his old job or for the U.S. Senate seat failed.
When it was rumored that Bush was considering running for the Senate in 2010, a Facebook group looking to promote his candidacy pulled more than 200 members before Bush squashed the buzz. Another Facebook group looking to draft Bush for president in 2012 has already garnered almost 900 members.
Some Republican and conservative activists are looking to get Scarborough to run for the presidency in 2012. Herepresented the Panhandle in Congress for three terms after winning in the Republican takeover of 1994.
Joe understands that conservatism is rooted in the ideas of a restrained foreign policy, a sustainable budget, the promotion of entrepreneurship, and conserving our resources, wrote the founders of the Draft Joe Scarborough website. Conservatives should consider Joes combination of politics and tone the path forward.
The Scarboroughites have less than 200 backers on Facebook and must contend with the weight of history. Republican James Garfield was the last president to be elected whose highest rank was in the U.S. House -- and that was in 1880.
The rise of Rubio has prompted a small buzz of putting the former speaker of the Florida House on the Republican ticket in 2012 as either the presidential or the vice presidential candidate. While Rubios team has played down such talk, insisting they are focusing on the Senate contest, it is a testimony to how an almost unknown politician, who was a heavy underdog when he started to beat Gov. Charlie Crist in the primary, has come up in less than two years.
Despite Rubio not offering his blessing, his name was included in last months presidential straw poll backed by the Family Research Council and other conservative organizations in Washington. Rubio placed 13th in the crowded field with 1 percent of the vote -- no threat to the front-runners, certainly, but ahead of more well-known candidates including U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Barbour, Paul, and Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer. Rubio did better in the straw poll for vice president, tying for sixth place with another Republican with Florida links: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who moved to Fort Walton Beach earlier in the year.
The mere talk of Rubio being a candidate in 2012 led to a Facebook group opposing a spot for him on the Republican ticket.
We don't need someone to be president who is cheered by a bunch of ultraconservatives who consider Dick Cheney a hero, wrote the founder of the anti-Rubio group, which has less than 100 members.
While Florida may be the fourth largest state in the nation, the waters may be a bit too shallow for three Republican presidential candidates all from the Sunshine State.
History is against Bush, Scarborough, Rubio or any Floridian seeking the White House. While Florida has been a state since 1845 and is a traditional battleground state, often dramatically as in 1876 and 2000, residents of the Sunshine State have failed miserably when looking at national executive office.
Before air-conditioning and the population boom of the mid-20th century, when Florida remained a small state, very few of its politicians sought national office. While Florida was closely contested before the Civil War and during Reconstruction, once the Redeemer Democrats took charge in 1877, the Republicans were not much of a factor in most presidential elections, though they did carry the state in 1928 when Herbert Hoover rode a wave of anti-Catholicism to take the state from Democratic candidate Al Smith.
The few Floridians who ran for national office did poorly. Gov. Thomas Brown flopped in his bid to become the Whig vice presidential candidate in the 1850s and Democratic Gov. Napoleon B. Broward failed in his bid to become William Jennings Bryans running mate in 1908.
But while Florida has grown dramatically since the middle of the 20th century, the states rulers have fumbled when they seek national office:
- Sen. George Smathers made a favorite-son bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1960 but nobody took his campaign seriously on a national level, including the candidate himself.
- Gov. Claude Kirk, the first Republican in that office since Reconstruction, toyed with the idea of higher office in 1968 but his backing of New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller doomed whatever chance he might have had for being vice president.
- Gov. Reubin Askew, who defeated Kirk in 1970, did not fare any better in his bid for national office. He turned down the chance to be George McGoverns running mate in 1972 and fared badly in his 1984 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
- While mentioned for VP in 1988, 1992 and 2000, former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Grahams campaign for the Democratic nomination for 2004 did not even get to Iowa.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
