Florida Democrats have a rising star on their hands and he comes from Jacksonville, a traditional bastion of Republican strength in the Sunshine State.
Alvin Brown was an unlikely candidate to be the first Democrat to win a Jacksonville mayoral race in20 years. While he worked in the Clinton administration in Housing and Urban Development and as an aide to Al Gore, Browns previous political campaigns were less than impressive as he unsuccessfully tried twice to take down U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown in the Democratic primaries.
Despite finishing well behind Republican Mike Hogan in the first round of the mayoral election in 2011, Brown came back to edge his opponent in the runoff election. It was a major upset but Hogan had paved the way for his own defeat by alienating supporters of his defeated Republican rivals and playing up social issues that had little to do with running Jacksonville.
Polls show Jacksonville residents generally approving Brown despite the Republican lean in Duval County. In fact, some GOP stalwarts on the First Coast are actually singing his praises.
While crime numbers in Jacksonville -- particularly the murder rate -- remain high, Brown is benefiting from a resurgent economy. Last week Forbes ranked Jacksonville as the third best city in the country to find a job. Brown is generally portraying himself as a fiscal conservative which was certainly helped by reducing the city workforce in his previous budget proposals.
Brown has generally avoided playing up his partisan credentials. He generally sat out the 2012 presidential election, though he did attend the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. But he did little for Barack Obamas re-election effort besides saying he would vote for him -- and he refused to publicly endorse the president.
Despite this, Brown has received some attention as a possible Democratic candidate for statewide office down the road. Former Duval County Sheriff Nat Glover, like Brown an African-American, received some buzz as a possible lieutenant governor candidate in past election cycles. The same could hold for Brown, who would provide some balance on the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial ticket for the likes of Bill Nelson, Charlie Crist or Alex Sink.
For now, Brown clearly has his eyes set on running for a second term in 2015. He filed for re-election in early March and has already brought in $105,000 for his campaign. He is also hitting the road, holding fundraising events in Tallahassee as he looks for a second term.
While candidates have until January 2015 to file, so far Republicans arent exactly chomping at the bit to get in the race. Former Mayor John Delaney, who now serves as president of the University of North Florida, shot down rumors he intends to run for his old job in 2015. Audrey Moran, currently with Baptist Health but a longtime fixture of city government as a mayoral staffer, ran for mayor in 2011 and placed third behind Hogan and Brown in the first round. There are rumors that Moran is looking at running again in 2015. Other possible Republican candidates include Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford, Duval County Elections Supervisor Jerry Holland, state Rep. Daniel Davis and City Council member Matt Schellenberg.
While no Democrat is ever a strong favorite in Duval County, Brown has a few things going for him. Only one Jacksonville mayor -- Tommy Hazouri -- has been defeated for re-election in recent years. Duval County is not quite the bastion of Republican support that it used to be, especially as residents continue to move out to neighboring St. Johns and Clay counties. The percentage of African-Americans in Duval County continues to grow, adding more Democratic support in Jacksonville.
Recent elections show that the right Democrats can do well in Duval County. True, Republican Rick Scott won Duval County in 2010, taking 51.6 percent while Alex Sink followed with 45.9 percent. But in 2012, Obama did even better than Sink, taking 48 percent against Mitt Romneys 51 percent. In the same election cycle U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla, beat out Republican challenger Connie Mack by 8 percent in Duval County. While Jacksonville still leans Republican, Democrats continue to have a chance in the area -- especially as more Republican families move to the likes of Fleming Island in Clay County and new developments along I-95 in the northern part of St. Johns County.
As he gears up for a second term and the economy picking up in Jacksonville, Brown is in solid, if not quite excellent, shape for the 2015 election cycle. If he wins another term, Brown, who is only 51, could certainly move up the political ladder. While Jacksonville is still an unlikely place for a Democrat to launch a statewide political career, he so far has certainly managed to defy political expectations.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
