Think twice before you bet against the governor's Seminole gambling compact.
Now, I'm not predicting the Florida Legislature is going to OK the deal. We've got too many miles to go, too much major legislation still in committee. It's just that I'm catching some of the nervous, where's-the-money-gonna-come-from buzz.
All I'm saying is, by the end of April, the anti-Indian-casino resolve could crumble like a Chinese fortune cookie.
It's started already. I used to hear any new policy initiative, any bill seeing even the smallest appropriation described as "dead on arrival." Not so much anymore.
Pressures are building. Local delegations and lobbyists -- you see them falling all over each other up and down Adams Street and in the halls of the House and Senate -- those folks aren't here to eat a sandwich at Andrews with their legislator.
They're after the money, the money, the money.
This being an election year, the lawmakers up for re-election -- well, let's just say they very, very, very much want to please.
But, how can they? Think of the squeeze. With an economy in tatters and tax collections improving but still dismal, Florida is looking at a $3.2 billion shortfall in the 2010-2011 budget -- maybe only $2.2 billion if Congress reimburses the state for Medicaid.
How about those federal stimulus dollars that balanced the current budget -- the same ones that saved the jobs of reading teachers hired during the boom years? No help there. They expire in 2012.
And, please, don't anybody suggest we raid the trust funds again.
OK. Then, Florida TaxWatch to the rescue, right? Forget it. On March 4, the think-tank people released a report recommending more than 50 specific actions the Legislature could take to hack some $3 billion from the budget bloat. But, one House rep put it in perspective. "Too hard," he said. "We're not going to tackle all that now."
So, here we are. You know what's left: the Seminole gambling compact. I saw a whole lot of kissing up to the pro-gaming contingent -- pari-mutuels and suits fresh in from Sin City included -- all day Wednesday. Even once-indignant lawmakers, once pledged never to let Florida sell out to gambling interests, who swore Gov. Charlie wasn't going to win this one, are backpedaling like wounded prizefighters.
If the Legislature says yes to the deal, the state gets some $445 million this year and $150 million for education every year thereafter -- and a whole lot of pressure goes away. It's not going to wipe out the budget shortfall, but it's enough to take care of some important little things, enough to make happy campers out of a lot of candidate-lawmakers going into the thick of the election season.
Again, let's be clear.
I'm not saying this deal with the Seminole tribe is a definite, positive "go." I'm saying there's a lot of reason it might be.
Maybe sooner rather than later.
Reach Executive Editor Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or by phone at 850-583-1823.
