Republicans hold the high ground in Floridas political battles.
They control the governorship and all the state Cabinet offices. Most of the Florida congressional delegation is Republican and they have veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature.
But they cant quite get their act together in taking on Democrat U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who is seeking a third term in November.
Nelson should be well-known to Florida voters. He was first elected to the Florida House in 1972 -- when Reubin Askew was in his first term as governor, people were listening to Don McLeans American Pie and the first Godfather film had been released.
Nelson moved up to Congress in 1978, won national attention when he flew on the space shuttle Columbia in 1986, ran for governor in 1990 but lost out to Lawton Chiles in the Democratic primary, bounced back to become insurance commissioner in 1994 and won his Senate seat in 2000. When he took on Chiles, Nelson tried to make an issue of his opponents age -- but Nelson turns 70 this year, 10 years older than Chiles was back in 1990.
Still, while he has played a leading role on the Florida political stage for decades, Nelson remains something of a mystery to many voters in the Sunshine State. A poll released by Suffolk University this week finds that 41 percent of those surveyed see Nelson as favorable and 26 percent as unfavorable -- but 12 percent have never heard of him and 22 percent know who he is but are unsure about him.
Clearly, Nelson is vulnerable and Republicans have targeted him as they look to win back the Senate in the 2012 election cycle. The Republicans and their allies, including groups such as American Crossroads, which is affiliated with Karl Rove, continue to pour money into Florida as they look to knock Nelson off in November. But the GOP has experienced one snag after another as candidates have either considered taking on Nelson before slamming the door on the opportunity, or jumped in and then headed to the sidelines.
State Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, made the mistake of trying to run for the U.S. Senate while presiding over the Florida Senate. Despite an impressive war chest, Haridopolos proved incapable of doing both and dropped out of the race in 2011.
Two other candidates -- former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and restaurant executive Craig Miller -- jumped into the race but parachuted into open congressional races after the redistricting process.
With those candidates heading to the sidelines, there remain three potential challengers to Nelson, all of whom are flawed:
U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, whose father held the seat for two terms before retiring in 2000, has led early polls, but some conservatives have not forgotten his vocal opposition to the Arizona immigration law and attempts to bring similar legislation to Florida.
Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux has proven a stalwart candidate, remaining in the race as the likes of Haridopolos, Hasner and Miller jumped out, and Mack -- who was a backer of Haridopolos -- jumped in. But LeMieux has the albatross of former Gov. Charlie Crist around his neck. Crist remains unpopular with Florida Republicans for leaving the GOP to run for the U.S. Senate with no party affiliation back in 2010. LeMieux had served as Crists chief of staff and was appointed by the then-governor to the Senate in 2009.
Retired Army officer and businessman Mike McCalister, who pulled more than 10 percent in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, is working the grassroots but is having fundraising challenges.
Nelson may be vulnerable, but there is a sense that the field of current Republican candidates will have challenges in trying to topple him.
This has led to a procession of Republicans pondering a late run and supporters attempting to encourage potential candidates to take on Nelson:
While Republicans hoped he would challenge Nelson, former Gov. Jeb Bush quickly dashed their wishes and stayed out of the race. Despite early buzz that she could enter the race, Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll showed no interest in making a Senate bid. While supporters hoped he would enter the race and even launched a draft effort, U.S. Rep. Allen West decided to stay in Congress. State CFO Jeff Atwater opened the door to running against Nelson back in April but chose to remain on the sidelines.
The latest Republican perhaps to float a trial balloon against Nelson is former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon, who represented the Space Coast in Congress for 14 years after winning a seat in the 1994 Republican victories. Weldon, who is a doctor, received some national attention during the Teri Schiavo case when he introduced a bill calling for the federal government to step in to protect her life. Politico reported this week that, despite the late date, Weldon is contemplating jumping into the Senate race and is already talking to potential staffers.
While Weldon ponders his possibilities, Mack and LeMieux have continued to pound each other-- and, no doubt, will turn their fire on Weldon if he jumps in. Weldon could appeal to conservatives turned off by LeMieuxs ties to Crist and Macks record on immigration, but the former congressman remains unknown across the state and, with barely four months to go until the primary, he doesn't have much time to raise his profile.
With more than $9.5 million on hand at the end of March and in solid if not spectacular shape in the polls, Nelson starts off as the favorite -- especially if none of the Republicans catch fire the way Marco Rubio did against Crist back in 2010. Unless the Republicans get their act together, it looks like Bill Nelson will extend his political career -- already running for 40 years -- another six years.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
