Residents of the Granite State like to insist, “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.” But Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and Barack Obama won in Iowa even as Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton stumbled in the Hawkeye State and still sat in the Oval Office.
All eyes were on Iowa Monday night as it held its caucus. Going in, observers expected a close contest with polls showing Donald Trump and Ted Cruz battling it out on the Republican side and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders running close in the Democratic contest.
Turnout was high on Monday night with many new caucus goers taking part on both sides. Clinton and Sanders went down to the wire while Cruz won on the Republican side; Trump underperformed in the second spot; Marco Rubio successfully made his move, running a close third.
Iowa gave some candidates momentum to propel them to New Hampshire and beyond while other politicians -- including two past caucus winners -- were exposed as pretenders instead of contenders. Here’s a look at some of the winner and losers from the Iowa caucus.
Winners
Ted Cruz. The Texas senator and his camp insisted he had the best organization and it paid off Monday night. Cruz beat Donald Trump in what was a must-win situation. A loss would have been near fatal for Cruz and he dodged that particular bullet. Cruz did enough to move on, even with Trump expected to win big in New Hampshire. With plenty of money in the bank, Cruz can weather a bad showing in the Granite State to take the fight down south -- just what he wanted all along. To be sure, Cruz did not knock Trump out of the race Monday night but the Texas Republican did what he had to do, did what he said he would do and that’s what mattered. One thing to keep in mind: Cruz visited all 99 counties in Iowa, a tactic that often pays off in the Hawkeye State.
Steve King. The Iowa congressman had a lot to lose in backing Ted Cruz. King has earned a national reputation for his tough talk on immigration, an issue more associated with Donald Trump than Cruz. With Cruz scoring a narrow win, King can take a bit of the credit. Congressman King emerged Monday as something of a kingmaker in the Hawkeye State. If the Democrats keep the White House in November, you better believe every would-be Republican presidential hopeful in 2020 will have King on their speed dial.
Marco Rubio. The Florida Republican took third Monday night but blew out his rivals in the establishment lane. That will help him in the states looming before him, especially if Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich backers in New Hampshire decide to discard their candidates. Rubio has always been open about his plan: third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina. He was helped on Monday night as news broke that Tim Scott from South Carolina will endorse Rubio Tuesday. At the very least, Rubio looks like he is well-positioned to be the last establishment favorite standing against Trump and Cruz. Rubio had a good night, far closer to Trump in second than Ben Carson in fourth and winning over voters who made their decisions in the final days of the campaign. Rubio can now make the case that it’s a three-candidate race.
Martin O’Malley Backers. Sure, the former Maryland governor was a total dud Monday night. But his supporters were often in the catbird seat in caucus locations across Iowa. That means, under the archaic rules when a candidate pulls less than 15 percent in a location, O’Malley backers could cut deals with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters as the caucus results lead to selecting delegates. Even while the former Maryland governor flopped in Iowa, some of his supporters will be able to reap the benefits in the coming months. Not a bad payoff for Iowa Democrats backing a candidate in low single digits.
Bernie Sanders. The senator from Vermont came close to toppling Hillary Clinton in Iowa. This will help him keep his lead in New Hampshire and ensure he can stay alive in the weeks to come. Sanders isn’t as strong a candidate as Barack Obama was back in 2008, but he far exceeded the likes of Bill Bradley and other Democratic underdogs in Iowa. Even if he came up short by a whisker, Sanders has to be happy with his showing Monday night. Of course the question -- as it has always been -- is how Sanders will do in states like South Carolina and Nevada where minority groups have a major say in the Democratic contests. In the meantime, Sanders’ performance in Iowa ensures he can advance to the later primaries and caucuses.
Losers
Terry Branstad. The Iowa governor emerged as one of the big losers on Monday night. He didn’t back any candidate for the Republican nomination, but he did his best to rally voters against Ted Cruz. It didn’t work. In the final hours of the campaign, Branstad appeared with Chris Christie while not endorsing the New Jersey governor. But Christie pulled only 2 percent in Iowa. First elected to his post in 1982 and serving four terms before winning a fifth term in 2010 and a sixth one four year later, Branstad is the longest-serving governor in American history. This is a minor stumble in his long career. But the Iowa governor put his money against the wrong horse this time out and it came back to haunt him.
Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Establishment. Clinton looked vulnerable Monday night, sweating it out as Bernie Sanders loomed close most of the night. Now she heads to New Hampshire where the Vermont senator has the home-field advantage. The Democratic leadership will now have to cope with stories about Clinton’s weaknesses which will only continue when Sanders wins in New Hampshire. That’s not exactly what Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Democratic establishment wanted to see, especially as more debates between Clinton and Sanders have been scheduled.
Mike Huckabee. What a fall for the former Arkansas governor who beat Mitt Romney in Iowa back in 2008. Huckabee has been descending in recent months, his poll numbers dropping at the national level and in key states as Donald Trump did better with economic populists and Ted Cruz rounded up social conservatives. To his credit, Huckabee said before the caucus he would end his campaign if he didn’t place in the top three in Iowa and he was true to his word, ending his bid Monday night. Iowa marks the end of Huckabee’s presidential ambitions but it might not end his time on the national stage. Even when his poll numbers went into the tank, Huckabee continued to have some of the most impressive favorable-to-unfavorable numbers in the Republican field. That should help if he wants to get back on Fox News or continue his media career somewhere else. Republicans clearly like Huckabee, they just didn’t see him as presidential.
Martin O’Malley. The former Maryland governor simply never found his role in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. While he outlasted Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb, O’Malley never proved much of a factor, as his poor showing in Iowa demonstrated. True, O'Malley, a virtual unknown to much of the nation, didn't get any help from debate scheduler Wasserman Schultz. But there was always a sense that he was hoping to use the 2016 race as a launchpad for higher office, the way Al Gore did in 1988 and John Edwards leveraged his showing in 2004. If that’s the case, O’Malley failed to deliver and that could hurt his future ambitions. His already unlikely path to the Democratic nod became even steeper after the votes came in Monday night. He was wise to bow out of the race.
Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor tried to be the kingmaker in backing Trump but she couldn’t deliver in Iowa. Her endorsement of the billionaire flopped and the latest round of family drama didn’t help matters. Palin’s comments about Obama’s handling of veterans and how it impacted her son dominated much of the attention she garnered, even as late as Monday morning when she appeared on NBC’s “Today” show. Getting into a shoving match with Steve King over ethanol did not help her. With 60 percent of Republican caucus goers identifying themselves as evangelicals, Iowa should have been made-to-order for Palin. Instead, she failed to get Trump over the finish line.
Republican Also Rans. The GOP contest looked like a three-man race Monday night. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich can make their stands in New Hampshire despite their lousy showings, but the rest of the field should pull the plug on their campaigns. While he took a distant fourth, Ben Carson wasn’t a contender and news that he was headed to Florida instead of New Hampshire and South Carolina after the caucus throws cold water on his campaign. Rand Paul did far worse in Iowa than his father did. Carly Fiorina might be a good debater, but her efforts in Iowa did nothing for her.
Rick Santorum. Like Mike Huckabee, the former senator from Pennsylvania beat out Mitt Romney in Iowa before but proved a complete non-factor in his second try for the White House. Santorum got in the race pretty late and took his eye off the ball in Iowa. Like Huckabee, that allowed other candidates -- namely Trump, Cruz and Ben Carson -- to leapfrog him. This looks like the end of the line for Santorum who, while he carried more than 10 states against Romney in 2012, simply fizzled this time out. Iowa marked the biggest triumph of his presidential campaign four years ago and this time brought his White House ambitions to a screeching halt. Still, he showed no sign of getting out on Monday night, announcing right after the caucus started that he would travel to every county in South Carolina in the days to come.
Donald Trump. The only poll that matters is on election day -- as Trump found out. Ahead in the polls, Trump skipped the last debate in Iowa and it turned out to burn him as Marco Rubio drew near and almost beat him out for second. Even as late as Monday afternoon, Trump was predicting a big victory and the record-high turnout should have benefited him. But he came up short in Iowa. This won’t kill a confident campaigner and self-declared "winner" like Trump, who is leading big in the New Hampshire polls, but Iowa was a setback for the reality TV star and celebrity businessman. Most late polls showed Trump getting more than 30 percent and he pulled less than 25 percent with Rubio breathing down his neck.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
