Viewpoint Florida released a poll Tuesday that shows former Gov. Jeb Bush routing President Barack Obama in Florida in a potential, but very unlikely, 2012 presidential match-up. Unlike the pack of Republican hopefuls, the poll finds that Bush clearly takes Florida off the table, securing it for the Republicans.
Florida is the biggest swing state in the nation.
While the former governor has expressed no interest in running for the Republican presidential nomination, the poll finds 57 percent backing Bush, who served two terms as governor, while 38 percent of those surveyed back Obama.
The poll finds Bush beating Obama among both genders, crushing the president among male voters by a greater than 2-to-1 margin and edging him among female voters. Bush led Obama with male voters 66 percent to 31 percent. The Republican took 50 percent of the females surveyed while the president trailed with 44 percent.
Of the 807 likely voters surveyed, 363 were Republicans, 324 were Democrats and 106 were independents. Bush secured the backing of 89 percent of the Republicans surveyed while 7 percent backed Obama -- but the former governor was also able to tap into Obamas base, taking 26 percent of the Democrats polled while the president kept 71 percent in his column. Bush led with independents, taking 46 percent to the presidents 40 percent.
Bush also led Obama across the state, crushing him 71 percent to 27 percent in North Florida including Jacksonville; took 60 percent of those surveyed in Orlando and the Space Coast compared to Obamas 33 percent; and beat the president 56 percent to 39 percent in Tampa and the Gulf Coast. Only in Southern Florida did Obama come close to Bush, though the Republican still led 48 percent to 46 percent.
While Obama led Bush with voters under 34, taking 48 percent to the Republicans 45 percent, Bush led in the poll among all other age groups. Bush beat Obama among 35- to 49-year-olds by 34 points, among 50- to 64-year-olds by 18 points and among seniors by 16 points.
But while the poll shows Bush doing far better in the Sunshine State than the field of Republican presidential candidates, the former governor has said repeatedly that he has no interest in running for the presidency in 2012. While polls have shown some of the potential Republican presidential candidates -- namely former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas -- in a close battle with Obama for the Sunshine States electoral college votes, the president has substantial leads over other Republican hopefuls, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.
The poll of 807 likely voters was taken April 13 and 14 and had a margin of errorof +/- 3.5 percent. Find the full crosstabs at Viewpoint Florida.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
