The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) released a poll from On Message on Monday which gives a good indication of how Gov. Rick Scott was able to defeat former Gov. Charlie Crist in last months Florida general election.
The poll of Floridians who voted in November shows Scott did better than expected with Hispanic voters while also taking a majority of male voters and seniors.
Scott won the election 48 percent to 47 percent and did well with Hispanics, running almost dead even with Crist. The poll shows 49 percent of Hispanic voters backed the Democrat while 47 percent supported the governor and 3 percent cast ballots for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie.
Scott took 65 percent of Cuban-Americans while Crist only mustered 30 percent of these voters and Wyllie rounded up 4 percent. Crist did better with Puerto Ricans, beating Scott among these voters 57 percent to 40 percent. Crist beat Scott among other Hispanic voters by the same percentage. Wyllie took 3 percent of Puerto Ricans and other Hispanic voters.
In the end, most Hispanic voters were focused on the economy, and they decided that under Governor Scotts leadership, the states real estate and job markets are headed in the right direction, insisted Wes Anderson and Kayla Dunlap from On Message.
Scott took a majority of men -- 52 percent -- while Crist mustered 44 percent of these voters. Women went for Crist 50 percent to 44 percent. Wyllie took 5 percent of women and 3 percent of men.
Heading into Election Day, a big hindrance for Democrats nationwide was their failure tocultivate a significant gender gap, Anderson and Dunlap noted. This was true in Florida, as well. While our post-elect shows Scott winning men by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent, Crist is only winning women by 6 (50 percent to 44 percent). Thats an unsustainable gender gap for any Democrat in a tight race.
Scott also took a majority of voters 66 and older, winning 52 percent of their votes. Crist garnered 45 percent of these voters. Scott took 51 percent of voters 55 to 65 while 45 percent of them backed Crist. Wyllie took 3 percent of voters 66 and older and 4 percent of voters between the ages of 55 and 65.
In targeting, messaging and turnout, the Scott campaign succeeded, Anderson and Dunlap noted on Monday. From broadcast messaging to door-to-door targeting, our post-elect survey strongly suggests the Scott campaign beat the Crist campaign at every phase. Perhaps this is most clearly demonstrated by Gov. Scotts tie among Hispanic voters. It could certainly be argued that the campaigns success with Hispanic voters had as much or more to do with Gov. Rick Scotts victory than any other targeted group.
The poll of 1,000 Floridians who voted in the 2014 general election was taken from Nov. 10-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
