Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, the first Democrat to win a mayoral race in that city since Ed Austin in 1991, is in serious trouble according to a poll of likely voters released on Monday.
St. Pete Polls took a poll for Saint PetersBlog showing former Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) Chairman Lenny Curry is coming on strong against Brown. Curry, the former Duval County GOP chairman, has been up with ads across the First Coast, playing up his business background and stressing his conservative values.
The poll finds, for the first round in March, Brown is ahead with 38 percent followed by Curry with 31 percent. City Councilman Bill Bishop stands in distant third with 9 percent. But with the runoff of the top two candidates scheduled in May, if nobody gathers 50 percent Curry takes the lead in a head-to-head match-up. In that scenario, Curry takes 45 percent and Brown 42 percent.
Brown does well with Democrats, pulling 66 percent of them, while 21 percent go for Curry. But Curry runs strong with Republicans; 69 percent back him and only 18 percent prefer the Democratic incumbent. Brown leads with independents, 46 percent to 40 percent.
Besides finding Brown below Curry in the runoff, the poll has other bad news for the mayor. Only 41 percent of those surveyed believe Jacksonville is headed in the right direction; 43 percent believe it's going the wrong way. A majority of likely voters -- 53 percent -- think it's time for a new mayor while 39 percent believe Brown deserves a second term.
The poll of 1,247 likely Jacksonville voters was taken Jan. 23-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
While Jacksonville is one of the most staunchly Republican areas in Florida, Brown upset former state Rep. Mike Hogan, the Republican hopeful in 2011. Hogan easily won the first round while Brown was the only Democrat, barely managing to squeak by other Republican candidates. But Brown caught Hogan and defeated him in the runoff.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
