Hillary Clinton has a solid lead over Donald Trump in a new poll of Florida, the largest swing state up for grabs in November.
St. Leo University released a poll on Tuesday showing Clinton taking 48 percent of decided supporters while Trump pulls 34 percent. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, running for the second time as the Libertarian nominee, takes 6 percent while Green Party candidate Jill Stein takes 2 percent.
When voters who are leaning to a certain candidate are included, Clinton retains her lead with 52 percent followed by Trump with 38 percent. Johnson moves up to 8 percent while Stein takes 2 percent.
Most polls of Florida have shown a far closer race.
Saint Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando, who teaches political science at that Pasco County based university, said on Tuesday that the window is closing on Trump carrying Florida. The Republican nominee will be speaking at a rally in Tampa on Wednesday.
“She was winning by 14 points in Florida in our June poll, and she’s still winning by that margin after the conventions,” Orlando said of Clinton. “ The opportunities for Donald Trump to make up that distance are shrinking.
“Absent an unprecedented movement toward Trump as a result of the debates, or more likely, an external shock to the system, she can safely put Florida in her column,” Orlando added.
Clinton and Trump are running even with men, both taking 45 percent apiece. But women go Clinton’s way 58 percent to 31 percent. Trump is up with white voters taking 51 percent while 37 of them percent back Clinton. But Clinton takes more than 90 percent of African Americans in Florida. Clinton also pulls in 70 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida while 23 percent back Trump. Seniors go for Trump 52 percent to 40 percent but he gets 23 percent of voters younger than 35.
Orlando noted Clinton was doing a better job of nailing down her base in Florida than Trump was. Trump has the support of 74 percent of Florida Republicans but 90 percent of Democrats in the Sunshine State are for Clinton.
“Donald Trump is having trouble keeping Republicans loyal to the top of the ticket,” Orlando said.
The poll also found the vice presidential candidates--Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence--were not a factor in Florida.
“The VP candidates seem to be making little impact overall and that was to be expected,” Orlando said. “It is very rare for a VP pick to have a big impact nationwide, as their effect is localized, if anything.”
The poll of 1,500 Florida adults, including 1,380 likely voters, was taken from Aug. 14-Aug. 18 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
