Three lessons learned from the Florida Republican Party's straw poll:
1. Big-wig party endorsements count for little.
2. Mainstream media bias counts for less.
3. Candidates cannot phone it in and expect to win.
The 37 percent of the vote hauled in by Herman Cain -- more than Rick Perry and Mitt Romney combined -- showed how much personal appearances counted in Orlando.
While the putative front-runners attempted to float above, or simply ignore, the Presidency 5 crowd, Cain played to the base. He reveled in the tea party hospitality suite, and he repeatedly "brought down the house" with speeches throughout the three-day convention.
State Rep. Scott Plakon was one of the converts. Unlike many of his establishmentarian colleagues who had locked in on Perry or Romney (after they had locked in on the now-defunct Tim Pawlenty), the Longwood Republican kept an open mind.
As Perry staggered in Thursday night's Fox-Google debate, Plakon, prodded by his wife, Susie, took a closer look at Cain during the summit and endorsed him on Friday.
"When voters around the country see what happened here, they're going to be impressed," Plakon said. "I believe we're seeing a real shift here."
Political spinmeisters immediately scrambled to downplay Cain's victory. They called it a protest vote. They said the Georgia businessman benefited from his speech on Saturday. They harrumphed that he doesn't have the cash for a sustainable campaign.
As snapshots in time, these explanations (excuses?) may contain elements of truth. It will be up to Cain to prove them wrong in the weeks ahead.
But how does any of this excuse the dismal showing by Perry, who had vaulted to an 8-point lead in the latest Quinnipiac Florida poll? Though he fed delegates a free meal on Saturday morning and spent more than an hour pressing the flesh there, the Texan just couldn't connect.
He barely finished ahead of Romney, who was a virtual ghost at P5.
And what can Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich say about their single-digit showings after addressing the delegates on Saturday afternoon? They had the same opportunities to ride the populist wave that Cain did -- but couldn't.
Ron Paul's claim to a die-hard libertarian base took a big hit (just as he did in this state's 2008 primary), Jon Huntsman remained a non-entity here and last-place finisher Michele Bachmann is finished in Florida.
Cain's passion and blunt outsider talk clearly resonated with Sunshine State Republicans thirsting for change.
Plakon, who sensed a "Hurri-Cain" swelling at the Orange County Convention Center on Thursday and Friday, said he figured the Godfather's Pizza CEO would place in the top three.
"I came in thinking Perry would win, but the [debate] comment questioning whether his critics had a heart really hurt him," Plakon said. "He was attacking the base."
By contrast, Plakon said Cain "makes you feel good about yourself."
The immigration issue, which snagged Perry, has long been derided as nativist gingoism by GOP elites, corporate interests and media mavens like Rush Limbaugh who pander for the "Hispanic vote." That conventional wisdom, too, was swept out the door in Orlando.
Insofar as the straw poll voters represent the party's base, P5 was an exercise in true democracy. Unlike Iowa, where candidates buy delegate seats, Florida's poll embodied a robust mix of independent-minded tea partiers and party activists.
Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll repeatedly, and giddily, reminded the crowd on Saturday that it paid to "show up." Cain showed up the party brass and pundits who had dismissed him as a distraction.
Gov. Rick Scott predicted ahead of the vote that the straw poll winner would be in prime position to win the Florida primary and then the GOP nomination. If the P5 poll counts for anything, Cain's in the game now.
Oh, and watch your back, Herman. This game is for keeps.
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
