Two new polls found that businessman Herman Cain is surging, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is stumbling and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is holding steady in the fluid race for the Republican presidential nomination.
A national poll from Quinnipac University released on Tuesday and Wednesday found Romney leading the race with 22 percent followed by Cain, who won the Presidency 5 straw poll in Orlando last month, with 17 percent and Perry with 14 percent. Five weeks earlier, Perry had topped the Q-poll with 24 percent with Romney in second at 18 percent and Cain a distant sixth place with 5 percent.
"Governor Rick Perry, whose numbers have dropped following three debate appearances and a disappointing finish in the Florida straw poll, has gone from front-runner to third place as Herman Cain roars past him -- at least for the moment," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Wednesday.
The rest of the candidates trailed in single digits. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has not announced if she will run in 2012, took fourth with 9 percent -- the first time her support has dropped to single digits in the Q-poll this year, followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 8 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas stood in sixth place with 6 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania were knotted together in seventh with 3 percent each. Former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah lagged behind with 1 percent.
"After seeing his lead disappear with the entrance of Rick Perry into the race, Mitt Romney has regained his position out front as the Texas governor's fortunes have fallen, Brown said. Brown added that the Republican nomination was still up for grabs even as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announced on Tuesday that he would not seek it. The GOP race, however, remains quite open, especially with Governor Christopher Christie's decision to remain on the sidelines.
When Palin was taken out of the mix, Romney continued to lead with 24 percent followed by Cain with 18 percent. Perry remained in third with 15 percent. Gingrich stood in fourth at 9 percent followed by Paul with 7 percent and Bachmann with 5 percent. Santorum remained with 3 percent and Huntsman stayed at 1 percent.
A big question now is whether Herman Cain is a serious candidate for the nomination, said Brown. He has zoomed into second place ahead of Perry. Once the attention shifts from the stillborn Christie candidacy, it is likely to focus on Cain, his background and proposals. That will determine whether his candidacy is the real deal or one that rises and falls once attention focuses on him, as happened to Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.
"With Christie out of the race, Romney has some breathing room. Let's see if the emerging Herman Cain has staying power, added Brown.
The poll found that President Barack Obama remained vulnerable as he seeks a second term in 2012. A majority of those surveyed -- 53 percent -- viewed Obama unfavorably while only 42 percent saw him favorably. Beating Obama by 5 percent among independents, Romney beat Obama in the poll 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll found that the Democrat led Perry 45 percent to 44 percent.
The Quinnipiac poll of 2,118 registered voters was taken from Sept. 27 through Oct. 3 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent. The sample of 927 Republican primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.
Another poll released late Tuesday also found Cain gaining and Perry faltering. A national CBS News poll found that Cain moved up dramatically in the last two weeks and is now tied with Romney to lead the pack of presidential hopefuls. Perry, who led a CBS News poll from two weeks ago, dropped back to third place.
Romney and Cain garnered 17 percent each. Two weeks before, Romney took 16 percent and Cain stood with 5 percent. Perry, who led with 23 percent two weeks ago, stood in third in the new poll with 12 percent.
The rest of the field trailed in single digits. Gingirch was in fourth place with 8 percent followed by Paul with 7 percent. Bachmann garnered 4 percent while Santorum took 3 percent. Huntsman lagged behind with 1 percent.
The CBS News poll of 324 likely Republican primary voters was taken from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
