Having moved up its presidential primary to Jan. 31, Florida ranks as one of the most important battlegrounds for the Republican presidential nomination -- and a new poll finds the Sunshine State is up for grabs.
The NBC/Marist poll released Wednesday morning found businessman Herman Cain and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts in a close contest among likely Florida Republican primary voters. Cain took 32 percent in the poll while Romney was right behind him at 31 percent. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas was a distant third at 8 percent followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who were tied with 6 percent each. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah took 2 percent each, followed by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico lagged behind with less than 1 percent.
You cant get to the convention in Tampa without going through Florida, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.Interestingly, Romneys getting now about what he ended up with in the 08 primary.
Cain, who won the Presidency 5 straw poll in Orlando last month and has been surging in polls at the national and state levels, won the backing of the tea party movement. With 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters saying they back the tea party, Cain took 40 percent of those voters. Cain also did well among the 21 percent of the likely primary voters who said they were very conservative and the 35 percent of the primary voters who are evangelical Christians. Romney led the 44 percent of likely primary voters who said they did not support the tea party movement.
The poll found that President Barack Obama remains vulnerable in the Sunshine State, which he carried in 2008. Obama was upside down in the poll with 41 percent approving of his performance and 49 disapproving.
While the president led three of his potential Republican challengers, he failed to crack 50 percent against any of them. Obama led Romney 45 percent to 43 percent. The Democrat did better against Cain, beating him 47 percent to 41 percent. Obama did best against Perry, beating him 47 percent to 39 percent.
The poll of 2,225 registered voters in Florida was conducted Oct. 10-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent. This includes a sample of 524 likely Florida Republican primary voters that had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
