Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson's slender hopes for retaining his 8th Congressional District seat would be all but dashed if he were in a one-on-one race with Republican Daniel Webster, a Sunshine State News Poll shows.
In that hypothetical match-up, Webster beats Grayson 50-37, with 13 percent undecided.
In the four-way race, Webster's edge shrinks to 43-36, with TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnering 6 percent, No Party Affiliate George Metcalfe getting 3 percent and 9 percent undecided. (Click here for the report on that previously published SSN Poll.)
"It's like that Chicago politician prayed, 'Lord if I must have an opponent, please give me two,'" said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls.
For Grayson's sake, three opponents might be even better.
In a sampling of 800 likely voters Sept. 21-23, Webster received 78 percent of the Republican vote in a hypothetical two-man showdown against Grayson. In the four-way contest, Webster's share of the GOP vote shrinks to 72 percent.
Webster fares far worse with independent voters in the four-way race -- actually losing that group to Grayson 42-43. In a two-way contest, Webster captures independents 49-26.
The four-person format even reduces Grayson's negative rating. His 51 percent "unfavorable" in the full field rises to 55 percent in a two-man heat.
"This validates the fact that NPA and TEA candidates are hurting Webster," Lee said. "Metcalfe, who draws 10 percent of the independent vote, is doing some damage."
None of which is to say Grayson has a clear path to victory against three opponents and a Whig write-in candidate on the fall ballot.
With his high negative ratings, an energized conservative base and Central Florida independents swinging rightward this year, Grayson has a steep uphill climb.
His best hope is that conservatives and independents will splinter on Election Day.
"In a two-person match-up, Grayson is cooked," Lee said.
VSS' automated survey was conducted four days before the four-way contest was polled live. The margin of error of the automated poll is +/- 3.46 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
