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Politics

HD 68: Can Bill Young's Name Help Him Beat Dwight Dudley?

October 10, 2014 - 6:00pm
Things dont come easy for Dwight Dudley as he looks to defend his Florida House seat in Pinellas County. Representing HD 68, Dudley has drawn a tough assignment this year as Bill Young, namesake and son of the longtime congressman, is running against the freshman Democrat.

Of course, in 2012 Dudley had Frank Farkas, no easy "out" to be sure, so he does have some experience with close races.

He may be a freshman, but Dudley is no spring chicken. Now 60, he has spent years as a criminal defense attorney in the Tampa Bay area. Farkas tried to use Dudleys background against him last time out, but the Democrat prevailed, beating him 51 percent to 44 percent; the remaining 5 percent went to Matthew Weidner who ran with no party affiliation.

During his term in the House, Dudley has shown a knack for getting publicity. He twisted Duke Energys tail, pushing for legislation that would ensure utilities cant bill Floridians for future power plants after Duke Energy did just that. While his bill went nowhere, Dudley became a vocal proponent of alternative energies and has presented himself as a champion of consumers.

Dudley is pretty well-established, both at home and in Tallahassee. In 1980, he worked for George Sheldon when Democrat Sheldon served in the Legislature, then moved over to work as a legislative analyst for the House Governmental Operations Committee. Dudley also worked as a public defender. His uncle Bill is very familiar to Pinellas County voters for his service on the St. Petersburg City Council.

As impressive as Dudleys ties are to the area, Young has him beat. He has one of the best brand names in Florida politics. During his long congressional career, Youngs father was able to count on the support of Democrats and independents as well as Republicans.

Youngs name was floated as a possible candidate to replace his father in a special congressional election, but he backed Kathleen Peters instead. That didnt sit well with many of his fathers supporters who lined up behind David Jolly. Even Youngs mother backed Jolly and sent a few jabs her sons way. Despite Jollys win, Young encountered little resistance inside the GOP once he started running against Dudley and cruised in the Republican primary. On most issues, he agrees with Republicans, including on school choice and fiscal conservatism.

Young has been a strong fundraiser during his first campaign. By Oct. 3, he had brought in $151,564.00 and spent more than $11,600 of that. He also relied on almost $80,850 of in-kind donations. But Dudley has done more, raising almost $178,3000, spending$158,800 and using $67,520 of in-kind donations by Oct. 3.

Besides the money edge, Dudley should benefit from the districts makeup. Democrats account for 38 percent of the district while 35 percent are Republicans. Thats no great change from 2012 when 38 percent were Democrats and 36 percent were Republicans here.

But, despite how close the parties are in terms of registered voters, Democrats have an advantage in HD 68. Dudley beat Farkas by 7 percent while Barack Obama did even better here, carrying the district over Mitt Romney by 10 percent. Even in good years for Republicans, Democrats can do well here. Take 2010, a great year for Republicans across the nation and in Florida, when Alex Sink beat out Rick Scott in the current district by 9 percent.

Granted, Sink had more ties to Tampa Bay than Scott, but something like that could repeat itself in 2014, which could help Dudley. Pinellas Countys own Charlie Crist heads up the Democratic ticket and is sure to do well in his home base. That could help Dudley over his Republican opponent, though many of these Democrats and independents have voted for Youngs father over the years. That helps the Republican to some extent, but the district isnt exactly favorable to Republicans.

This will be close, but Dudley has a slight edge in the final weeks.

Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.

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