Stewart has had something of a roller coaster career in Orange County politics over the years. Back in 1998, she came up short when she ran for Orange County Commission but bounced back to beat Clarence Hoenstine by a slender margin in 2002. Keeping her seat in 2006, Stewart turned her eyes to higher office. In 2010, she ran for Orange County mayor and took third place in the first round of voting, behind eventual-winner Teresa Jacobs and Bill Segal.
Two years later, Stewart bounced back yet again. Republicans fielded a top-tier candidate in Bob Brooks who was looking to return to Tallahassee. But, despite Republicans having the advantage in HD 47, Stewart defeated Brooks in 2012. Hitting her opponent for backing school choice and being too far to the right on social issues, Stewart took 52.4 percent while Brooks mustered 47.6 percent. The Orange County Democrat even outperformed Barack Obama in the district since the president beat Mitt Romney here by only 2 percent.
Now Stewart faces Republican Mike Miller, a businessman who now works for Rollins College. Miller played baseball at the University of Florida before working for Connie Mack when that Republican served in the Senate. A longtime GOP activist, Miller started a small business and holds an MBA. Millers learned a few lessons from Brooks 2012 efforts and has focused far more on economic issues than social ones. Republicans are clearly behind Miller. He took on Mo Pearson in the Republican primary and utterly crushed him, taking 74 percent of the vote.
Both candidates have done well with fundraising. By Oct. 3, Stewart had raised more than $121,900, spent almost $80,700 and relied on more than $61,150 through in-kind donations. Miller has done even better, raising almost $127,200 -- spending more than $120,225 of that -- and using more than $43,000 of in-kind donations by Oct. 3.
Republicans still have the edge here on registrations -- 38 percent of voters are in the GOP while 36 percent are Democrats -- but that hasnt helped them much in recent years in HD 47. The number of independent voters continues to grow here, moving up from 23 percent in 2012 to 26 percent now.
These independent voters helped Obama and Stewart prevail in 2012. They were even more of a force in 2010 when Democrat Alex Sink did well here against Rick Scott, beating him 51 percent to 46 percent. That helps explain why Miller is far more interested in playing up fiscal issues than social ones.
Stewarts vulnerable to be sure but she is pretty well-known here and has gone left on a number of issues such as the environment and LGBT rights, which could help her with the Democrat-leaning independents based in HD 47. A drug bust at a house owned by Stewart back in February isnt helping her chances, though nobody has accused the state representative of being involved in anything.
This one looks close. St. Pete Polls released a survey last month which showed Miller up 50 percent to 44 percent but it did have a slight Republican lean. Still, St. Pete Polls had Millers big win over Pearson nailed down. All signs indicate this could be a close battle and it would be no surprise if Stewarts political career continues to resemble a roller coaster ride with her win in 2012 followed by a loss here. To have a second term, Stewart needs to ensure Democrat-leaning independents come out in November like they did for her and Obama in 2012 and Sink in 2010. But Miller is a far more elusive target than Brooks was.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
